XRP Rally to $4? Developer Return Sparks Bullish Chatter

The XRP market is buzzing with renewed optimism following the unexpected return of Harry Harald, a web developer closely followed within the XRP community. Over the weekend, Harald broke his silence since May with a post about XRP, triggering an immediate and enthusiastic reaction from other influential figures. Alex Cobb, a prominent voice, amplified the sentiment by suggesting a move to $4.00 was possible, a prediction that would represent a substantial 42% gain from XRP’s current trading level of approximately $2.86. Such a move would be significant, as XRP has not traded above $3.80 since 2018, making the $4 level a formidable psychological and technical barrier.

The power of community influence is a well-documented force in cryptocurrency markets, and the reaction to Harald’s post is a textbook example. The immediate amplification by figures like Cobb helped spark fresh optimism among traders, shifting the short-term narrative. This social momentum comes as XRP opened the week lower, slipping to $2.77 before recovering to around $2.82. The token had been trading near $3 just a day prior, indicating a market sensitive to both technical levels and community sentiment. The rally prediction hinges on breaking a long-held ceiling that has constrained price action for years.

Beyond social media chatter, chart analysts are pointing to concrete technical signals that bolster the bullish case. Analyst Ali Martinez reported a TD Sequential buy signal on XRP’s four-hour chart. This indicator is used by some traders to identify potential entry points following a period of downward momentum. The signal carries weight due to historical backtests, which supporters claim show approximately 60-70% accuracy on higher timeframes. Furthermore, data suggests that since 2022, three out of four two-week buy signals were followed by major rallies, providing a statistical foundation for the current optimism.

Additional technical factors are contributing to the positive outlook. XRP has successfully broken a recent downtrend after finding a bottom at $2.65 on September 1. Crucially, the cryptocurrency is now holding above key support levels, including the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-day moving average. In technical analysis, maintaining a position above these levels is widely interpreted as a bullish sign, suggesting that the underlying trend may be shifting from bearish to bullish. However, the token remains about 25% below its swing high of $3.65 established two months ago, indicating that significant resistance lies ahead.

The technical and social optimism is set against a backdrop of evolving legal and regulatory developments. Recent reports have disclosed that following Judge Torres’s final judgment in the long-running case, Ripple initially placed a $125 million fine into escrow. While the SEC agreed earlier this year to reduce the penalty to $50 million in a settlement, Judge Torres rejected requests to cut the original order. The situation reached a pivotal point in August when both parties withdrew their appeals in the US Second Circuit. The exact status of the escrowed funds remains a topic of discussion, as highlighted by queries from community members like Jake Claver, adding a layer of uncertainty to the legal resolution.

Simultaneously, a potentially more impactful narrative is gaining traction: the possibility of SEC approval for an XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). Speculation is mounting that an approval could come as soon as next month. The introduction of an XRP ETF would represent a monumental shift, potentially unlocking billions of dollars in institutional investment that has so far been largely sidelined due to regulatory concerns. This prospect adds a powerful fundamental driver to the current technical and social bullishness, though commentators like bill morgan caution that the “lawsuit excuse” can no longer explain periods of flat price action or slow adoption.