XRP Price Volatility: TD Sequential Signals Rebound Amid ETF Outflows

The XRP price began the week with a notable show of bullish momentum, recording an approximate 7% jump. However, this upward trajectory proved unsustainable, as the altcoin nosedived on Wednesday and continued on a downward path. As of the latest data from CoinMarketCap, XRP trades at $1.74, having lost about 3.26% of its value in the past 24 hours. This price action underscores the cryptocurrency’s current volatility, caught between conflicting market forces.

While the immediate future appears to tilt towards the bearish side, a key technical indicator has recently flashed a signal that suggests the selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion. This creates a complex picture where short-term technical setups clash with broader institutional flow data, leaving traders to decipher which narrative will prevail in the coming sessions.

In an analysis shared on January 30, technical analyst Ali Martinez pointed to the TD Sequential indicator as a source of potential hope for XRP bulls. The TD Sequential is a technical analytics tool used to identify points where an uptrend or downtrend is likely to pause or reverse by tracking short-term trend exhaustion. The indicator operates in two phases: the Setup Phase, which counts from 1 to 9, and the Countdown Phase, which can extend to a count of 13.

From the chart shared by Martinez, a completed ‘9’ count to the downside is apparent. In the context of the TD Sequential, a completed ‘9’ count is typically interpreted as a sign of dwindling selling pressure, suggesting the momentum driving XRP’s recent fall is nearing exhaustion. Martinez postulates that this signal could soon translate into a price rebound, provided a key condition is met: the integrity of the $1.70 support level must be maintained.

Should a rebound materialize from the $1.70 support, Martinez identifies the $1.80 to $1.85 price range as the primary resistance level that would test XRP’s renewed momentum. If the altcoin manages to overcome this barrier, the $1.90 level could emerge as the next significant battleground for price action. This technical framework offers a structured, albeit conditional, roadmap for a potential recovery.

Contrasting the optimistic technical signal is a stark reality from the institutional investment sphere. According to data from the ETF tracking site SoSoValue, US XRP Spot ETFs are currently running at a cumulative net outflow of more than $69 million. This negative figure follows a pattern, as it aligns with the previous week’s net outflow of $40.64 million, indicating a sustained period of capital withdrawal.

The outflow dynamics were particularly pronounced last Thursday, which alone saw a cumulative outflow of $92.92 million. This single-day purge was severe enough to flip the entire week’s flows into negative territory, erasing the combined positive net inflows of $23.87 million recorded over the first three days of the week. Typically, sustained negative net flows signal that institutional demand may be tapering, as they directly report that more capital is being withdrawn from the XRP ETFs than deposited.

In the context of XRP’s sharp price downtrend, it becomes apparent that institutional investors, through these ETF vehicles, may have played a significant role in the recent price pressure on the Ripple token. However, it is crucial to interpret this data with nuance. Negative ETF net flows do not necessarily tell a broader, long-term story of bearishness; they are often reflections of short-term profit-taking or de-risking events by large investors.

The current state of XRP presents a classic market dichotomy. On one side, the technical analysis from Ali Martinez and the TD Sequential indicator builds a case for a short-term rebound, contingent on the $1.70 support holding firm. This offers a quantifiable, if speculative, bullish scenario for traders watching for trend exhaustion and reversal patterns.

On the other side, the hard data from SoSoValue on US XRP Spot ETF flows tells a story of institutional capital exiting, at least in the short term. This creates a fundamental headwind that could challenge any technical rebound. The convergence of these two narratives—the potential for a technical bounce against the backdrop of institutional outflows—sets the stage for a critical test of market sentiment. The coming days will reveal whether the signal of trend exhaustion identified by the TD Sequential can overcome the weight of $69 million in ETF outflows, determining if XRP finds a floor or continues its descent.