XRP Price Decline Linked to On-Chain Losses, Glassnode Reports

According to data from Glassnode, the prolonged correction in XRP’s price since 2025 is fundamentally linked to a shift in investor behavior. The core issue is that XRP has fallen below its aggregate holder cost basis, which represents the average price at which current investors acquired their tokens. When a cryptocurrency trades below this critical level, a significant portion of its holder base is technically underwater, holding their assets at a loss. This condition creates a powerful psychological and financial pressure point, often leading to panic selling as investors scramble to limit further losses.

This increased selling pressure directly reinforces the price downtrend, creating a negative feedback loop. The data shows XRP crashed from a high above $3 last year and has been falling consistently since, struggling to reclaim that level amid broader market weakness. The shift in sentiment is not merely speculative; it is quantifiable through on-chain metrics that track the real-time financial state of the network’s participants.

A key indicator substantiating this bleak outlook is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), analyzed using a seven-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This metric tracks whether coins being moved or sold on the blockchain are transacted at a profit or a loss. A SOPR value above 1 indicates profit-taking, while a value below 1 signals loss-selling. Glassnode’s chart reveals a telling trajectory for XRP: the SOPR declined from approximately 1.6 in July 2025 to around 0.96 recently.

This sustained move below the neutral level of 1 is a clear signal that the majority of selling activity in XRP is now occurring at a loss. Consequently, on-chain profitability for XRP holders has turned negative. Such an environment severely weakens investor confidence and diminishes the incentive to hold the asset, particularly for short-term traders. Furthermore, persistent negative profitability discourages new capital inflows, as prospective buyers see few signs of recovery or positive momentum, thereby contributing further to price decline or stagnation.

Glassnode’s analysis draws a striking historical parallel, noting that XRP’s current market structure closely resembles a period between September 2021 and May 2022. During that earlier phase, XRP’s SOPR similarly fell below 1 and remained there for an extended duration. That period was characterized by prolonged consolidation and low volatility following sharp declines, preceding any eventual market stabilization.

This comparison suggests XRP may be entrenched in a similar structural phase where loss-dominated trading activity delays recovery. A sustainable rebound appears contingent on selling pressure easing and market sentiment shifting back into positive territory, a process that historically has taken considerable time.

The on-chain narrative is reflected in stark price action. As of the latest data, the XRP price has declined even further, now trading under $1.4. According to CoinMarketCap, the cryptocurrency has plummeted by more than 4.3% over the past 24 hours and by well over 46% year to date. This performance underscores the severity of the downtrend and the powerful influence of the on-chain dynamics identified by Glassnode.

The convergence of trading below the cost basis, a SOPR indicating sustained loss-selling, and a market structure mirroring a prior bear cycle paints a challenging near-term picture for XRP. Recovery hinges on a reversal of the underlying investor behavior metrics, a shift that the current data does not yet indicate.