XRP Nears Historic Bottom After Record Loss Spike, $2 in Sight

On-chain analytics firm Santiment has identified a dramatic capitulation event for XRP, marked by a sharp spike in weekly realized losses. The data, tracked via Santiment’s Network Realized Profit/Loss chart, shows the latest readings came in at approximately -908 million XRP. This represents the largest such loss event since November 2022, when weekly realized losses hit a staggering -1.93 billion XRP. The significance of this metric lies in its historical correlation with major market inflection points, where widespread selling at a loss often exhausts downside pressure.

The current structure for XRP is mirroring the 2022 setup with notable precision. In both instances, the extreme realized loss spike emerged after a prolonged period of price compression and decline. Recently, XRP fell from above $3 to trade in the mid-$1 range, hovering between $1.45 and $1.65 as the -908 million loss reading printed. This pattern suggests that investors, driven by fear and panic, have been selling at significant losses rather than waiting for a potential rebound. According to Santiment’s analysis, such extreme readings tend to cluster around key price floors, indicating that the recent capitulation could be a major bottom signal for the cryptocurrency.

The precedent set in late 2022 provides a compelling blueprint for XRP’s potential path forward. Following the -1.93 billion XRP realized loss spike at that time, the cryptocurrency did not rebound immediately. Instead, it underwent a gradual structural shift that laid the foundation for a sustained rally. Over the subsequent eight months, the XRP price rose more than 114%. The chart analysis shows that past capitulation phases, characterized by these extreme loss spikes, were typically followed by expanding price candles and stronger upward momentum once the intense selling pressure began to fade.

The current -908 million XRP loss event, while smaller in magnitude than the 2022 episode, exhibits the same hallmarks of an emotional extreme among holders. This similarity reinforces the analytical view that downside pressure may be diminishing. The data indicates that the most negative readings on Santiment’s chart have historically marked peaks in selling activity, after which the trend has reversed. If the market structure continues to mirror the 2022 pattern, the recent loss spike could indeed signify that a local bottom is in place for XRP.

The comparison to the 2022 capitulation event not only suggests a potential bottom but also outlines a plausible bullish recovery trajectory. From its current trading range near $1.35, a percentage gain equivalent to the 114% rally observed after the 2022 bottom would propel XRP’s price well above the $2 threshold. This technical projection places the $2 level firmly within reach, contingent on history repeating its pattern of post-capitulation recovery.

The on-chain data from Santiment is central to this outlook. The extreme realized loss metric is a powerful indicator of market sentiment, capturing the moment when discouraged sellers exit their positions. The emergence of this signal for XRP implies that a significant volume of weak hands has been flushed from the market, potentially clearing the way for accumulation and a new uptrend. While immediate volatility is always a factor in cryptocurrency markets, the analytical case built on this on-chain data points toward diminishing selling pressure and an approaching recovery phase for XRP, with the $2 level serving as a key medium-term target.