XRP Nears Critical $1.48 Realized Price, Echoing April 2022 Bear Signal

The core metric under scrutiny is the Realized Price, an on-chain indicator highlighted by Glassnode. This figure, currently at $1.48 for XRP, represents the average acquisition price or cost basis across all addresses on the blockchain. It serves as a crucial dividing line for market-wide profitability. When XRP’s spot price trades above this level, the average holder is in a state of unrealized profit. Conversely, a drop below $1.48 would signal that the majority of the circulating supply is ‘underwater,’ held at a loss.

According to Glassnode’s analysis, XRP has maintained a position above its Realized Price throughout 2024 and 2025, meaning investors have broadly enjoyed gains. However, this profitability has been shrinking. After a peak in late 2024, the gap between the spot price and the Realized Price narrowed over 2025 as tokens changed hands at higher prices, gradually lifting the average cost basis. The recent sector-wide market crash has accelerated this convergence, pushing XRP perilously close to the $1.48 threshold and eroding the average investor’s paper profits.

The proximity of the spot price to the Realized Price has triggered a significant historical comparison from Glassnode. The analytics firm explicitly noted, “The current market structure is very similar to that of April 2022.” That period marked a transition into a bear market, where XRP’s price first tested and then failed to hold above its Realized Price. The failed retest was followed by a steep and prolonged decline that ultimately established the cycle’s low.

This historical echo raises a critical question for the near future: will XRP successfully retest and hold above the $1.48 Realized Price support, or will it break down as it did in 2022, potentially catalyzing another significant bearish leg? The outcome of this test is paramount, as it will determine the financial state of the average holder and could set the tone for XRP’s medium-term trajectory.

With the price action turning bearish, technical analysts are mapping out potential downside targets should the sell-off continue. Analyst Ali Martinez has identified key levels based on a parallel channel pattern. According to his analysis, immediate resistance for XRP sits at $1.86. More critically, he has outlined two crucial support zones: the first at $1.38 and a deeper level at $1.02.

These technical levels provide a roadmap if the bearish scenario unfolds. A break below the Realized Price at $1.48 would make the $1.38 support the next logical line of defense for bulls. A failure there could see the price target the $1.02 area, which would represent a decline of over 35% from current levels. At the time of writing, XRP is trading around $1.60, placing it between the looming Realized Price test and Martinez’s first identified support, highlighting the asset’s precarious position.