XRP Exchange Reserves Plummet as Analysts Eye $10 Target

The current movement of XRP off trading platforms is drawing direct comparisons to late 2024. According to the provided data, XRP reserves on the South Korean exchange Upbit dropped from 6.6 billion to under 6 billion tokens in November 2024. Analyst CW noted that this reduction in readily available supply was followed by a dramatic price surge from $0.50 to $3.29. A similar dynamic appears to be unfolding in early 2026, with Upbit’s reserves beginning to fall again as the price climbed to around $2.30. This pattern is significant because large withdrawals from exchanges often indicate investors are moving tokens into private wallets for long-term holding, reducing immediate sell-side pressure on the market.

The trend is not isolated to Upbit. Data from CryptoQuant shows that Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, has also seen a steady decline in its XRP reserves. Since October 2025, more than 300 million XRP have been withdrawn, bringing Binance’s holdings down from over 3 billion to 2.68 billion tokens. Interestingly, this period of outflows from Binance initially coincided with a price drop from over $3 to around $1.80, though the price has since recovered to above $2. The contrasting price action during the Binance outflows compared to the Upbit precedent highlights the complex interplay of global liquidity and market sentiment.

As of the latest data, XRP is trading around $2.10, having faced resistance near the $2.28 level. This technical hurdle has prompted caution among some traders. Technical analyst CRYPTOWZRD pointed to a potential double-top pattern forming on the XRP/BTC chart, warning that further decline is possible unless buyers intervene decisively. This near-term uncertainty is reflected in the token’s 6% drop over 24 hours, though it remains up more than 16% for the week.

Despite the short-term volatility, other analysts project a much brighter long-term picture. Chartist Ali Martinez has identified a TD Sequential buy signal in progress, a technical indicator often used to spot potential trend reversals. Meanwhile, Elliott Wave specialist XForceGlobal provided a notably bullish outlook. The analyst stated that XRP has “already completed that five-wave decline,” suggesting a major corrective phase is over and the token may be in the early stages of a new uptrend. From this perspective, XForceGlobal sees $5 as a realistic target and has even mentioned the possibility of a rally to $10 or $20 during the current market cycle. The analyst did caution, however, that a retest of the $1.30 to $1.50 support range could still occur before any sustained upward move.

Beyond exchange flows and technical analysis, fundamental factors are also bolstering the case for XRP. The token’s performance in the first week of 2026 caught widespread attention, as it outpaced both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). This momentum led financial network CNBC to label XRP the “hottest crypto trade of the year,” noting a clear shift in trader attention toward the asset as an alternative to the market’s two largest cryptocurrencies.

Perhaps more significantly, US-listed spot XRP Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have continued to record steady inflows into January 2026. These inflows are widely interpreted as a signal of growing interest from larger, institutional investors who prefer regulated investment vehicles. The combination of shrinking exchange supply—which limits available tokens for sale—and increasing demand via ETFs creates a classic supply-demand dynamic that some traders believe could fuel significant price appreciation, provided key resistance levels like $2.28 are conclusively breached.