Introduction
Crypto analyst CW has identified a critical juncture for XRP, reporting that the digital asset has entered a neutral state—a phase that has historically preceded major price rallies. According to his technical analysis, XRP recently broke above a symmetrical triangle pattern, signaling the start of what he terms Phase 4 in a recurring four-phase market cycle. This development positions the cryptocurrency for what could be accelerated upward movement, with a projected target near $21.5 based on historical Fibonacci extensions.
Key Points
- XRP has completed three phases of a historical market cycle and entered Phase 4, which previously resulted in strong rallies.
- The analyst uses Fibonacci extension levels to project a potential new all-time high near $21.5, based on the 2014 cycle pattern.
- Momentum indicators like Stochastic and MACD show consistent behavior across cycles, with Phase 4 characterized by overbought signals and expanding histogram bars.
Decoding the Four-Phase Historical Pattern
The core of CW’s analysis rests on a repeated four-phase pattern he has observed in XRP’s price action across multiple market cycles. The first documented cycle ran from 2014 to 2018. In that period, Phase 1 was marked by a sharp initial breakout to a first target peak (TP1), setting a new all-time high (ATH). This was followed by Phase 2, where the price action formed a Symmetrical Triangle, leading to several months of sideways movement within a tightening range. Phase 3 then ensued, characterized by a prolonged consolidation period before the price finally broke the triangle’s upper boundary.
According to CW’s chart, XRP has mirrored this behavior in the current cycle, which began in 2017. The analyst notes that XRP has already completed Phases 1 through 3. After hitting an initial peak around $3.5 (TP1) earlier in 2025, the cryptocurrency underwent a similar period of consolidation within a Symmetrical Triangle. The recent breakout above this pattern’s upper boundary signifies the transition into Phase 4. CW emphasizes that this ‘neutral state’ is not a period of stagnation but rather the early stage of a larger bull rally, with a decisive move above the previous all-time high acting as the key catalyst for price acceleration.
The $21.5 Target: A Fibonacci-Based Projection
The most striking element of CW’s forecast is the specific price target. The analyst projects a second new all-time high for XRP near $21.5. This figure is not arbitrary; it aligns precisely with the 6.618 Fibonacci extension level observed in the 2014 cycle. In that historical precedent, Phase 4 culminated with XRP surging to a second ATH (TP2) at this exact Fibonacci level. CW’s analysis suggests the current cycle is following the same blueprint, with the symmetrical triangle breakout serving as the entry point into this final, explosive phase.
This projection provides a quantifiable framework for the rally CW anticipates. The move from the recent breakout point to the $21.5 target represents a significant potential appreciation, underpinned by the technical repetition of a past cycle. The analysis implies that the market structure for XRP is not random but is adhering to a recognizable pattern of breakout, consolidation, and subsequent powerful expansion.
Momentum Indicators Confirm the Cycle Thesis
Supporting the price pattern analysis, CW points to the behavior of key momentum indicators—the Stochastic Oscillator and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram—across each phase. During Phase 2, the period of consolidation and decline, the Stochastic frequently hit oversold levels. This aligns with the extended sideways price action and periodic dips within the triangle pattern. Phase 3, the neutral consolidation, saw the Stochastic hovering in a middle range, reflecting the market’s indecision.
The MACD histogram tells a complementary story. Phase 1 showed strong positive bars during the initial breakout. Phase 2 displayed negative bars, signaling bearish momentum as the price declined. Phase 3 was marked by small, fluctuating bars, indicative of low momentum and equilibrium. Crucially, in Phase 4 of the 2014 cycle, both indicators shifted dramatically: the Stochastic spiked toward overbought levels, and the MACD histogram rapidly expanded into positive territory. This coincided with the strong price breakout to new highs. CW’s current chart suggests XRP’s indicators are poised for a similar shift as it enters this final phase, providing technical confirmation for the bullish price structure.
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