XRP Double Top Pattern Sparks Bearish Debate Among Analysts

On December 17, Peter Brandt posted a chart of XRP-USDT from binance/?utm_source=CVJ.Ai&utm_medium=glossary&utm_id=CVJ.AI" target="_blank">Binance, highlighting what he termed a “potential double top.” The pattern is defined by two distinct price peaks—one around $3.40 and another near $3.66—with a clear support level, or “neckline,” established near $2.00. In technical analysis, a double top signals exhaustion of an uptrend. The critical juncture is the neckline; a sustained break below it confirms the pattern and shifts the market from a simple pullback into “failed structure” territory.

Brandt’s chart showed XRP already trading below this crucial $2.00 support, with a recent price marker around $1.8859. He framed his analysis unambiguously, directly addressing XRP’s dedicated online community, known as the “Riplosts.” “This is a potential double top. Sure, it may fail, and I will deal with this if it does. But for now this has bearish implications. Love it or not — you need to deal with it,” Brandt wrote. His focus is now on whether this breakdown will solidify into a sustained weekly close below $2.00 or if it will quickly reverse, rendering it a false break or “bear trap.”

Not all market observers are leaning into the bearish conclusion drawn from the chart pattern. In a counterpoint posted on December 15, trader Cryptollica highlighted a separate XRP/USD weekly chart from Bitstamp. The focal point was the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, reading approximately 33. Cryptollica’s chart annotated that similarly low RSI readings have occurred around five prior significant market bottoming zones for XRP.

This creates a technical tension. Momentum indicators like RSI are designed to identify overbought and oversold conditions, and a reading of 33 suggests the selling pressure may be exhausted. However, as Brandt himself acknowledged, such readings do not, on their own, invalidate a breakdown in price structure. The RSI identifies a condition (oversold), while the double top identifies a potential price path (reversal lower). They can coexist until one signal is proven dominant by subsequent price action.

While Brandt did not explicitly state a price target, the structure of the chart he shared allows for a standard “measured move” calculation. The pattern’s height—the distance from the peaks near $3.60 down to the neckline at $2.00—is approximately $1.60. In a confirmed double top breakdown, the conventional projection subtracts this height from the broken neckline. This arithmetic implies a potential downside target in the neighborhood of $0.40. It is crucial to note this is not a forecast but the theoretical completion target if the pattern fully plays out.

Brandt demonstrated a balanced approach in his response to the RSI argument. “Yea, if this dbl top fails then this could become exciting. I agree. I am not championing a bear case — just showing charts for what they are,” he wrote. This exchange captures the core of the current uncertainty. The immediate question is whether XRP can muster the strength to reclaim the $2.00 area decisively. A successful reclaim would turn the recent breakdown into a failed move, potentially flipping the narrative from bearish to bullish.

If, however, XRP cannot reclaim $2.00 and instead establishes sustained trading below it, the conversation shifts from a “potential” pattern to a “confirmed” breakdown. At that point, the downside arithmetic ceases to be hypothetical and begins to inform traders’ risk models and positioning. At the time of the original analysis, XRP was trading at $1.83, leaving it poised for a decisive move that will determine which technical signal—the pattern breakdown or the oversold RSI—ultimately prevails.