XRP Bull Run: ETFs & Supply Squeeze Fuel Rally

According to crypto commentator Zach Rector, XRP’s months-long stagnation is approaching a critical inflection point as selling pressure exhausts itself and institutional interest builds. Rector contends that “XRP sellers are exhausted” and that “the downside action and the consolidation that we’ve seen over the past few months is coming to an end.” His analysis suggests that financial institutions are preparing to market XRP through sophisticated presentations, marking a fundamental shift in market dynamics.

The timing of this potential breakout hinges on regulatory developments, particularly the approval of XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Rector explicitly tied ETF approvals to the resolution of the US government shutdown, stating “ETFs are set to go live for XRP as soon as the government shutdown ends. No, I am not anticipating the SEC to approve the ETFs while the government is shut down.” This creates a clear catalyst timeline where institutional products could flood the market once government operations resume.

Rector pointed to BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF as a template for how institutional participation could drive XRP’s price action. He described a scenario where “Jane Street… spark[ed] a massive momentum ignition selloff just in time for BlackRock’s ETF to buy the most Ether in 2 months,” with $437 million of inflows arriving during price weakness. This pattern of institutional accumulation during retail panic selling provides a blueprint for how XRP ETFs might operate, with Rector claiming “the suits have the champagne on ice cuz they know that they’re about to go break records with the XRP ETFs.”

Beyond ETF catalysts, Rector emphasized significant supply-side constraints that could amplify price movements. He highlighted on-chain and DeFi dynamics reducing liquid XRP supply, specifically pointing to Flare’s FXRP mechanism. “So far, Flare has already locked up almost $60 million worth of XRP. That’s equivalent to about 20 million XRP,” Rector noted, describing wallet flows and escrowed balances visible on public ledgers as evidence of supply reduction.

The supply-tightening thesis extends to digital asset treasury (DAT) companies, which Rector claims had “already actually acquired 10% of the overall Ethereum supply” and were now “coming for XRP.” This institutional accumulation pattern, combined with DeFi lockups, creates what Rector characterizes as a potential “supply shock” scenario. The convergence of reduced circulating supply and increased institutional demand could create powerful upward price pressure.

Rector also referenced tokenization and payments initiatives associated with Ripple and the XRP Ledger, asserting that “they really are going to tokenize on the XRP Ledger” and bring “flows of liquidity that are valued in the trillions of dollars” onto the network. This broader adoption narrative complements the supply reduction story, suggesting multiple pathways for XRP demand growth beyond speculative trading.

Evidence of growing institutional interest extends beyond US markets. Rector pointed to European developments, citing a post from VanEck’s Matthew Sigel indicating that “Luxembourg becomes the first EU sovereign wealth fund to buy Bitcoin with a 1% position via ETF.” He also noted recent meetings between Ripple executives and Luxembourg’s finance minister, suggesting deeper institutional engagement with digital assets.

Middle Eastern expansion further supports the institutional pipeline thesis. Rector referenced Ripple’s expansion in Bahrain as additional evidence of global institutional momentum building behind XRP and related technologies. These international developments create a broader foundation for adoption beyond the US ETF narrative.

From a technical perspective, Rector observed that recent price action found support above critical levels. “I zoomed out… to when we last back tested $2.70 just to show you… support,” he said, noting a visit to “about 2.77… people are front running that $2.70 level… we’re up to $2.81.” This technical resilience, combined with fundamental catalysts, informs Rector’s ambitious price targets.

Rector’s projections are notably bullish, suggesting newcomers could “still… triple it up at least by next year” and that a “10x” remains plausible under his “$20 to $30 base case.” He characterized “double-digit XRP” as “easily done” given the convergence of catalysts including “ETFs, digital asset treasury companies, and institutional adoption.” Despite XRP trading at $2.815 at press time, Rector dismissed concerns about missing the peak, asserting “This party’s just getting started” as institutional players prepare to market XRP to broader investor audiences.