XRP Analyst Sees Bullish Channel Despite 33% Monthly Drop

The technical case for a potential XRP reversal rests entirely on the monthly timeframe, according to analyst Arthur. His chart, tracking XRP from March 2017 to the present with each candlestick representing a full month, shows a long-term ascending channel. The lower boundary of this channel, tested repeatedly over nine years, now sits at a support zone of $0.85–$0.95. This is roughly 30% below the current price of $1.37. “This is a monthly structural read, backed by macro and long-term volume behavior,” Arthur wrote. He posits that this zone may represent the area where ‘smart money’ institutional capital returns to the market.

Arthur emphasizes volume as the critical missing ingredient for a sustained rally. He notes that the largest volume spike in XRP history occurred between November 2020 and April 2021. In contrast, the 2024 rally, which pushed XRP above $2, saw four times less volume. “The real money hasn’t returned yet,” he stated. “What we saw in 2024 was whales and some funds. Not the large institutional flow that changes a market forever.” This analysis suggests that while price action has been volatile, the foundational capital from major institutions has remained on the sidelines.

Current market data supports the view that speculative fervor has cooled. Analysis from Arab Chain shows a significant contraction in derivatives positioning. Over the last 30 days, XRP futures open interest dropped by about 1.8 billion XRP on Bybit and 1.6 billion on Binance. Kraken also posted a decline of approximately 1.5 billion XRP. This widespread drop in open interest suggests traders are closing leveraged positions rather than building new ones—a behavior typically observed during transitional phases before a new market trend emerges.

Arthur’s optimism is not based on chart patterns alone. He cites five macro developments that distinguish the current environment from previous cycles. These include regulatory clarity following the conclusion of Ripple’s lawsuit with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the launch and scaling of Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD, and deeper institutional integration of Ripple’s technology. He also points to the accelerating narrative around real-world asset tokenization and the maturation of what he calls “real institutional infrastructure” that is now in place. “Technical analysis is always driven by macro,” the analyst said. “And the macro is pointing up.”

XRP has a historical pattern of delivering sharp recoveries following extended downturns, which adds context to the current technical setup. During the 2018 bear market, the asset traded near $0.30 for months before rallying to $1.70 in April 2021. It found another bottom around $0.35 in the spring of 2022 and remained range-bound until November 2024, when it climbed above $2. It later reached an all-time high of $3.65 in July 2025. These cycles demonstrate the asset’s capacity for significant rebounds after prolonged consolidation.

The confluence of a defined long-term support zone, reduced speculative leverage, and a fundamentally improved macro landscape creates a narrative distinct from mere short-term price action. For investors, the critical watchpoint is the $0.85–$0.95 support band on the monthly chart. A successful test of this nine-year channel, coupled with a return of substantial volume, could signal the re-entry of the institutional capital that analyst Arthur identifies as the missing catalyst for a lasting trend change.