Wall Street Analyst: Bitcoin to Challenge Gold’s Market Cap

In a recent CNBC interview, William Blair’s fintech equity analyst Andrew Jeffrey stood firm in his conviction that Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition remains intact despite its characteristic price swings. He framed recent market behavior—where Bitcoin started the year up about 5% before giving back over 2%—as reflective of an “immature asset.” Jeffrey’s analysis points to a fundamental structural issue: supply concentration. With a market capitalization exceeding $1.9 trillion, roughly one-third of Bitcoin’s total supply is controlled by an estimated 2 million wallets. This concentration, he explained, creates inherent instability, particularly during periods of market stress.

Jeffrey further identified a behavioral catalyst for volatility: the influx of new retail investors through ETFs. He stated these recent buyers often possess “weaker conviction” and are more prone to sell during downturns, creating sell-offs that can feed on themselves and lead to sharper declines. Despite acknowledging the current “risk-off” environment, the Wall Street analyst characterized this phase as temporary. His core argument is that beneath the short-term noise driven by investor psychology, Bitcoin’s decade-long track record as the world’s best-performing asset tells a more compelling long-term story.

A central pillar of Jeffrey’s thesis is a redefinition of Bitcoin’s primary utility. He made it clear that he does not see BTC becoming a dominant payment tool. Instead, he pointed to stablecoins like Circle’s USDC as better suited for everyday transactions. Bitcoin’s future, in his view, lies in its evolution into a premier store of value. This shift in perception is critical to his bullish price prediction. Jeffrey stated that Bitcoin could eventually challenge gold’s role in that category and move closer to the precious metal’s market capitalization, which is currently about 15 times larger than Bitcoin’s.

This comparison to gold underscores the scale of the potential opportunity Jeffrey envisions. For Bitcoin to approach gold’s market cap, it would imply significant price appreciation from current levels. He emphasized that “price discovery is still underway,” suggesting the market has not yet fully priced in this potential store-of-value narrative. By framing Bitcoin not as a competitor to traditional payment systems but as a digital alternative to a $14 trillion asset class, Jeffrey provides a fundamental rationale for its long-term growth that transcends its recent price instability.

Addressing concerns that Bitcoin feels like “old news” as attention shifts to newer narratives around companies like Ripple, Jeffrey underscored Bitcoin’s irreplaceable role in the broader digital asset market. When CNBC questioned whether the crypto market could grow without Bitcoin leading, his response was unequivocal. He stated it would be “very hard for the crypto market to see sustained gains without BTC at the forefront.” This positions Bitcoin not merely as one asset among many, but as the essential benchmark and tide that lifts all boats in the sector.

This perspective reinforces the idea that Bitcoin’s health is a proxy for the entire cryptocurrency market’s sentiment and capital flows. Fading excitement around Bitcoin, therefore, poses a risk to the entire ecosystem’s growth trajectory. Jeffrey’s analysis suggests that for investors betting on the future of crypto, Bitcoin’s performance remains the critical leading indicator. Its path to potentially challenging gold’s market cap is not an isolated event but a journey that would likely define and propel the entire asset class, making its leadership indispensable for sustained, market-wide advancement.