VanEck’s head of digital assets research, Mathew Sigel, articulated the firm’s bullish thesis in a Tuesday tweet, projecting that Bitcoin could capture half of gold’s $26 trillion market capitalization. “At today’s record gold price, that implies an equivalent value of $644,000 per Bitcoin,” Sigel stated. This projection comes as Bitcoin’s market capitalization stands at approximately $2.48 trillion, having gained more than 12% over the past 30 days according to CoinGecko data.

The forecast emerged following Bitcoin’s surge to a record high of $126,080 on Tuesday, though the cryptocurrency has since retreated slightly and currently trades at $124,529, down 1.20% from its peak. VanEck’s analysis positions Bitcoin as mirroring the physical properties of gold while offering digital advantages, with the firm describing the comparison as fundamental to understanding Bitcoin’s long-term potential.

Derek Lim, Head of Research at market-making firm Caladan, provided crucial context to VanEck’s projection, telling Decrypt that while “VanEck’s thesis is directionally correct,” it requires careful consideration of timing. “Reaching half of gold’s market cap requires a 5.6x appreciation from here,” Lim explained. “Given Bitcoin’s shift to stable, absolute dollar gains of $50,000 to 60,000 per cycle rather than exponential surges, this target is more realistic over 5 to 10 years, not necessarily within this single cycle.”

The tempered outlook comes as gold has notably outperformed Bitcoin in the near term. Year-to-date, gold has delivered a 49% return including a 17% gain in the third quarter, while Bitcoin has returned 31% and 6.9% over the same periods respectively, according to TradingView data. This near-term divergence highlights the different dynamics driving each asset despite their shared characterization as “debasement trades” by institutions like JPMorgan.

Ryan McMillin, chief investment officer at Merkle Tree Capital, reinforced the long-term framework, telling Decrypt that “pairing them together is the first step. Reaching half of gold’s market cap, and eventually even parity, makes sense in that framework.” This perspective acknowledges Bitcoin’s evolving role as a store of value alongside traditional safe-haven assets.

VanEck’s long-term vision, detailed in a July 24, 2024 blog post, rests on several core assumptions: adoption from younger consumers in emerging markets, resolution of Bitcoin’s scalability challenges through emerging Layer 2 solutions, and steady increases in institutional adoption. The firm’s research suggests that by 2050, Bitcoin could be used to settle 10% of international trade and 5% of domestic trade, leading central banks to hold 2.5% of their assets in the cryptocurrency.

Lim outlined a measured trajectory for Bitcoin’s progression, stating that “the most likely path sees Bitcoin reaching 30 to 50% of gold’s market cap within 10 years, then approaching parity later.” Based on this analysis, Bitcoin could reach $300,000 to $500,000 by 2035, assuming historical growth rates moderate while key structural tailwinds such as generational wealth transfer and institutional adoption remain intact.

VanEck’s most ambitious projection applies a velocity of money equation to arrive at a potential Bitcoin price of $2.9 million by 2050, translating to a total market capitalization of $61 trillion. The firm further estimates that the underlying Bitcoin Layer 2 ecosystem facilitating this growth could be worth an additional $7.6 trillion, highlighting the broader economic implications of Bitcoin’s maturation.

The investment firm’s ambitious long-term forecast contrasts with immediate technical considerations, particularly regarding Bitcoin’s historical cycle patterns. The last two cycles formed peaks between 500 and 550 days after the halving event, and with 534 days having elapsed since Bitcoin’s last halving on April 20, 2024, concerns about history repeating itself have emerged.

However, Lim noted that “while the 550-day mark has historically been significant, it has not always marked the absolute peak.” He emphasized that the current cycle differs fundamentally due to institutional investor involvement via spot exchange-traded funds, which has compressed volatility. “This isn’t the speculative frenzy of the past; it’s the maturation of an asset class,” Lim observed, suggesting that the “86% gain on a much higher base, combined with shallow drawdowns, suggests this is sustainable growth, not a cycle nearing its expiration date.”

McMillin also expects a departure from historical patterns, stating that “in past cycles, Bitcoin peaked around 500–550 days after the halving. This time, we expect it to run longer.” He pointed to macroeconomic factors including the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle having “only just begun” and potential tariff shocks under a Trump administration that could extend the inflation and debasement narrative. “Put together, we see the top coming at least 180 days later than usual,” McMillin concluded, highlighting the complex interplay between Bitcoin’s internal cycles and external economic conditions.