US Government Reopening Boosts Bitcoin Liquidity Outlook

The U.S. Senate’s advancement of H.R. 5371, the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2026, marks a pivotal moment for financial markets after a 41-day government closure. This continuing resolution, which funds agencies through January 30, 2026, immediately restarts furloughed statistical agencies including the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis. The restoration of official data flows represents a fundamental shift for markets that had been operating without key economic indicators that anchor rate expectations and dollar valuation.

The immediate consequence is the resumption of critical inflation data, with the October CPI release scheduled for Thursday, November 13, at 08:30 ET, followed by PPI on November 14 and Import and Export Price Indexes on November 18. These releases reset market data-dependence, pulling rate bets and dollar movements back toward inflation and labor inputs rather than fiscal uncertainty. For Bitcoin markets, this normalization of the macro data pipeline provides the clarity needed for informed positioning around real interest rates that influence crypto risk appetite.

Concurrent with the data restart, Treasury auction operations return to a predictable cadence under the government reopening. The Treasury’s quarterly refunding maintains coupon sizes at $125 billion across 3-, 10-, and 30-year notes and bonds, with approximately $26.8 billion in new cash raised. Auction timings remain on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays, providing market participants with the supply visibility that was lacking during the shutdown.

According to the Treasury’s refunding statement, officials plan to hold coupon rates steady for several quarters while utilizing bills and cash management bills for flexibility. This steady-for-several-quarters stance, combined with continued buybacks to support market functioning, limits the chance of a near-term term-premium shock as operations resume. The Treasury General Account closed around $943 billion on November 7, providing a substantial cushion as auctions normalize. A high and rising TGA typically acts as a headwind to bank reserves, while a draw or softer rebuild can provide a quiet tailwind to risk assets including crypto.

The hinge for Bitcoin price action remains the 10-year real yield, which currently stands at 1.83% based on TIPS-implied calculations. This elevated level compared to mid-year creates a binary setup for crypto markets as inflation data returns. A benign CPI print would tend to ease real yields and financial conditions, a backdrop that has historically supported risk assets and coincided with tighter ETF spreads and improved secondary-market depth for crypto.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows represent the other critical swing factor. Global crypto ETFs brought in record amounts at the start of October as Bitcoin surged to new highs, before activity waned and U.S. funds experienced net outflows into early November. Order book depth has improved significantly compared to 2022-23 levels, with Kaiko data showing lower slippage for larger ticket sizes. These deeper books amplify macro-led moves because incremental flows transmit more cleanly, particularly when ETF creations or redemptions align with cross-asset shifts in rates and the dollar.

With the continuing resolution unlocking the economic calendar, Bitcoin faces three distinct liquidity paths in the coming weeks. If CPI lands at or below consensus and the Treasury refunding clears without friction, real 10-year yields could drift toward the 1.6-1.7% area, the dollar could soften, and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs could pivot to modest net inflows. High-frequency allocators tend to re-engage when the data path becomes visible, and a slower TGA rebuild would support net liquidity conditions.

Conversely, if CPI runs hot and the Treasury leans on bills to rebuild cash, real yields could press above 1.9%, ETF outflows could resume, and crypto would trade defensively with a stronger beta to real yields. A third, process-noise outcome remains possible if House passage wobbles or if CPI arrives with quirks tied to the publication backlog, in which case flows may chop without clear direction. With nominal 10-year yields trading near 4.1% in early November and CPI back on schedule, the interaction between Treasury issuance and inflation data will likely set the tone for rates through week’s end.