US Crypto Bill Nears Senate Vote with Bipartisan Support

Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming captured the sentiment of a weary industry this week, stating, “We’ve come so far, and we are close to a bipartisan legislation that will stand the test of time.” Her reflection underscores a half-decade journey punctuated by seismic events that have both challenged and catalyzed the push for clear rules. The collapse of FTX, persistent market volatility, opposition from the Federal Reserve, and the presidential veto of accounting guidance known as SAB121 have all served as a painful proving ground, demonstrating the urgent need for a stable regulatory environment.

The legislative process is now moving with notable momentum. The US Senate has slated January 15 for a crucial markup of the Act, a procedural step that involves aligning drafts from the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees before pushing a final bill to a vote. Senator Tim Scott reinforced the positive outlook, stating he is “optimistic” the bill will pass committee, clear the Senate, and be signed by President Trump. This sentiment was echoed by White House crypto czar David Sacks, who said in December that “we are closer than ever” to passing the bill.

The draft legislation represents a fundamental shift in the US regulatory approach to digital assets, moving from what commentator ‘BMNR Bullz’ called “enforcement to structure.” Its primary purpose is to establish a clear digital commodities framework under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Critically, it would treat major crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ether as commodities by default, a classification that has been the subject of intense debate and legal battles with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

This redefinition directly narrows the scope of the SEC, confining its authority to regulating what are defined as actual securities. The bill also introduces significant protections for developers working on non-custodial infrastructure, aiming to foster innovation without imposing undue liability. Furthermore, it seeks to improve oversight for retail investors and align US regulations more closely with developing global standards, addressing concerns that the current patchwork system puts American firms at a competitive disadvantage.

Despite the forward momentum, a sober analysis suggests the path to law remains fraught with potential delays. Financial services firm TD Cowen suggested this week that the legislation might not achieve final passage until 2027, with full implementation potentially delayed until 2029. The primary obstacles are political. Analysts note that Democrats may have little incentive to fast-track the bill, especially with the potential for control of the House of Representatives to change after the 2026 midterm elections, which could reset the legislative agenda.

The industry is balancing this cautious outlook with measured hope. Blockchain prediction platform Kalshi has quantified the odds, placing the probability of the legislation becoming law at 20% before April, 47% by May, and 74% by the end of the year. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan summarized the prevailing view, stating, “I’m cautiously optimistic.” He added a crucial warning: “Without legislation, the current pro-crypto regulatory tilt at the SEC, CFTC, and other agencies could reverse under a new administration.” This underscores that the window for establishing a durable, bipartisan framework may be finite, adding urgency to the current negotiations as the Senate prepares for its pivotal markup.