Trump Jails Venezuelan Leaker After Insider Trading on Polymarket

The sequence of events began on January 3, following the U.S. operation against Venezuela. Blockchain security platform Lookonchain revealed that three specific wallets on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket had successfully bet that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be out of office. Crucially, these bets were placed hours before Maduro’s reported capture, allowing the wallets to collectively secure profits exceeding $630,480. The largest gain came from wallet ‘0x31a5,’ which turned a $34,000 bet into $409,900. Wallet ‘0xa72D’ profited $75,000 from a $5,800 stake, and a third wallet, tagged ‘SBet365,’ made $145,600 from a $25,000 investment.

Lookonchain’s analysis identified several red flags indicative of insider trading, not mere speculation. The three wallets were created and pre-funded days in advance of placing the bets. Furthermore, they exhibited no prior history of activity on the platform; their sole purpose appeared to be wagering on the outcome of events specifically related to Venezuela and Maduro. This highly targeted, pre-meditated activity, combined with the precise timing just before a major geopolitical event, formed a compelling case that the bettors acted on leaked, non-public information.

The blockchain data’s implication of a security breach was later corroborated by official channels. According to Lookonchain, former President Donald Trump stated that the individual responsible for leaking information about the Venezuelan attack prior to its occurrence had been arrested and jailed. Trump indicated the leaker would face a lengthy prison sentence and confirmed that authorities were investigating other individuals who may have collaborated in disseminating the confidential information. However, to date, only the primary leaker has been apprehended.

This confirmation bridges the digital evidence from the blockchain with real-world enforcement, highlighting how crypto-native platforms like Polymarket can inadvertently become channels for monetizing classified leaks. The incident raises significant questions about the security of sensitive government operations and the challenges of regulating anonymous activity on decentralized prediction markets, where large, informed bets can signal impending events.

In a development that has amplified concerns, the blockchain narrative did not end with the Venezuelan trades. Lookonchain reported that after cashing out their substantial profits, two of the three wallets—’0x31a5′ and ‘0xa72D’—became completely inactive, showing no transactions for 11 days. The third wallet, ‘SBet365,’ however, re-emerged on the platform just two days ago. It placed a new bet of $4,000, this time predicting that Ali Hosseini Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, would be out of office by January 31.

This new wager arrives amid a backdrop of lingering geopolitical tension between the U.S. and Iran, though reports from sources like Reuters indicate threats of immediate strikes had recently eased. The bet’s specificity and its origin from a wallet already linked to a prior insider trading case inevitably raise alarms about another potential leak of classified information. It remains unclear whether this is an informed prediction based on fresh intelligence or a speculative follow-up by the same actor. The situation underscores the ongoing challenge for security agencies: blockchain prediction markets can serve as an early, public warning system for insider activity, forcing a race between leakers seeking profit and authorities aiming to prevent the next breach.