Trump Fed Shift Unpriced in Crypto Markets, Warns Analyst

According to CME-derived data analyzed by Krüger, the futures curve currently prices an expected fed funds rate of 3.47% for the April 2026 FOMC meeting—the last under Jerome Powell’s chairmanship—drifting down to 3.29% for June 2026, 3.10% for September 2026, and 2.99% for December 2026. This represents roughly 48 basis points of easing between late April and early December 2026, implying just two quarter-point cuts across that span. Krüger’s core argument is that this gradual descent toward just under 3% is inconsistent with the policy preferences he associates with the Trump camp and therefore inconsistent with what he terms an ‘ultra dovish’ chair appointment.

Krüger points to Fed Governor Stephen Miran as a proxy for Trump-world monetary instincts, noting that Miran has advocated for a much faster return to neutral policy rates. According to Krüger’s analysis, Miran has argued that the ‘appropriate fed funds rate’ is ‘roughly 2% to 2.5%’ and has characterized his divergence from colleagues as centered on ‘speed of cuts,’ not destination. Crucially, Miran has expressed preference for ’50 bps cuts’ over 25-basis-point steps as the way to get policy back to neutral—a significantly more aggressive approach than what current market pricing reflects.

On Krüger’s arithmetic, a futures curve that delivers only about 50 basis points of easing from the first post-Powell meeting in June 2026 through December 2026 is not a curve that has truly priced a Trump-era chair willing to front-load larger moves. ‘The Trump camp wants faster and bigger cuts, many of them,’ Krüger concludes. ‘The Fed only cutting 50bps between the new Fed Chair’s FOMC in June and December 2026 falls short. That’s why I sustain an ultra dovish Fed Chair appointed by Trump is not priced in.’

The timing of Krüger’s warning is particularly relevant given recent dramatic swings in market expectations. Last week, traders sharply increased the probability of another cut at the Fed’s December meeting after New York Fed President John Williams said rates could fall ‘in the near term.’ This remark pushed implied odds of a quarter-point December move into the mid-70% range on CME FedWatch, up from roughly 40% the day before—representing a significant repricing of near-term monetary policy expectations.

In parallel, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated his baseline forecast in which the Fed cuts in December, then again in March and June 2026, taking the policy band down to roughly 3.00%–3.25%. ‘We expect another Fed cut in December, followed by two more moves in March and June 2026 that take the funds rate to 3-3.25%,’ said Hatzius. While this path is modestly more dovish than what the curve had discounted earlier in the month, it still resembles the gradualism embedded in Krüger’s CME table: sequential 25-basis-point steps aiming for an early-2026 rate around the low-3% area rather than a rapid drop toward the low-2s preferred by Trump-aligned officials.

Goldman Sachs economists have also warned about downside risks for the economy next year, suggesting the economy could slow more than expected, potentially requiring additional monetary support. This institutional perspective aligns with the general direction of Krüger’s analysis but differs significantly in both the pace and ultimate destination of the easing cycle.

For cryptocurrency markets, currently valued at a total market capitalization of $2.92 trillion, the dispute is less about whether cuts are coming than about the speed and terminal rate of the easing cycle. Crypto assets remain structurally levered to shifts in dollar liquidity and real-rate expectations; what Krüger is flagging is a scenario where the curve’s ‘destination’ and, especially, its pacing remain too conservative relative to a potential political reorientation of the Federal Reserve.

If traders are correct that the Williams-sparked repricing represents the beginning of a slower, data-dependent easing cycle, then current crypto asset valuations may already incorporate the relevant macro impulse. However, if Krüger’s analysis proves accurate, the curve is still missing a regime change in the Fed’s reaction function—one in which larger front-loaded cuts compress cash yields faster than expected, steepen risk-on positioning, and force another round of cross-asset duration and liquidity repricing.

This gap between a Powell-era gradual slope and a potential Trump-era shock path represents what Krüger means when he says an ultra-dovish chair ‘is not priced in’ for crypto markets. The potential for faster, larger cuts could drive significant capital rotation into risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum as compressed yields and increased dollar liquidity create favorable conditions for cryptocurrency appreciation. The current market pricing suggests crypto investors may be underestimating the magnitude of monetary policy transformation that could accompany a change in Federal Reserve leadership in 2026.