Trump Fed Control Could Boost Bitcoin & Gold, Analyst Says

The crypto commentator known as plur daddy (@plur_daddy) has resurfaced with a compelling macro thesis that positions Bitcoin and gold as primary beneficiaries of what he calls a “once-a-decade” policy inflection. Central to his argument is former President Donald Trump’s potential push to assert greater control over U.S. monetary policy, which the analyst believes could catalyze a liquidity wave that undermines the U.S. dollar and forces institutional participation in alternative stores of value. “It’s been great being off Twitter… I continue to be long BTC and also significantly sized up my gold position in August. This is driven by my belief that Trump’s efforts to take control of the Fed represent a momentous catalyst,” he wrote.

The analyst contends that if Trump gains influence over the Federal Reserve, it’s logical that he would not only cut rates but engage in some form of yield curve control—a policy approach not used in the U.S. since the 1940s. “The USD will get destroyed as a result,” he predicts, framing Bitcoin and gold as “more pure beneficiaries of an environment where liquidity is increasing and institutional credibility is undermined.” This perspective emerges as gold trades near record highs and global policymakers debate the use of Russia’s immobilized reserves to backstop new loans to Ukraine.

A key pillar of plur daddy’s thesis is that Bitcoin has fundamentally transformed from a halving-linked “four-year cycle” asset to one that trades primarily as a function of liquidity and institutional credibility. “BTC… has been captured by tradfi and is a more pure expression of liquidity conditions,” he argues, suggesting that lingering fears about a halving-style market top are misplaced in the current environment. This shift reflects Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset class that now responds more directly to macroeconomic forces than its own internal supply dynamics.

The liquidity lens extends specifically to the Treasury General Account (TGA), which has been rebuilt rapidly into late Q3. Research desks had warned that an aggressive TGA refill could briefly drain market liquidity before easing—a pattern that crypto traders monitor closely given Bitcoin’s “hypersensitive” reaction to changes in dollar system reserves. “BTC is hypersensitive to any shift in liquidity conditions, much more so than equities,” the post asserts, echoing analysis that maps TGA dynamics to risk-asset performance. This heightened sensitivity positions Bitcoin as a direct beneficiary of any potential liquidity injection resulting from political pressure on Fed policy.

The policy backdrop plur daddy sketches has moved from hypothetical to contested reality in recent weeks. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell publicly rejected claims that the central bank is acting politically, calling such accusations “cheap shots” while defending the data-dependence of recent decisions. However, this defense comes amid increasing scrutiny of White House influence, including the administration’s attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook via lawsuit—an unprecedented challenge to Federal Reserve independence.

Concrete signposts of this policy shift include the recent confirmation of Fed Governor Stephen I. Miran, who immediately dissented at the September FOMC meeting for a larger cut and has been publicly arguing for materially faster easing. In parallel, plur daddy outlined a potential pathway to lower mortgage rates through government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buying more mortgage bonds, with capital requirement tweaks and derivatives used to manage duration. This approach would distinguish itself from quantitative easing by shifting spreads through asset mix rather than expanding central-bank balance sheets directly.

The international dimension adds another layer to the thesis. Europe’s evolving stance on Russia’s frozen sovereign assets—approximately $300 billion immobilized after the 2022 invasion—represents what the analyst calls a “de facto seizure” that “massively bolsters the raison d’être for crypto.” Brussels is considering a structure where new loans to Kyiv are backed by these assets and only repaid if Russia pays reparations—an outcome the author argues “will never happen,” thereby enhancing crypto’s appeal as a neutral store of value beyond government control.

Market context has been sympathetic to the store-of-value argument, with gold piercing new highs this month and multiple banks projecting scenarios toward $3,700–$4,000 over the next several quarters. The analyst suggests a potential rotation between assets: “It makes sense that BTC start moving [when] gold’s momentum slows down,” positing that Bitcoin could catch up once bullion’s advance stalls. This interplay between traditional and digital safe havens underscores how both assets might benefit from the same macro drivers.

The post has drawn quick agreement from notable traders, suggesting a growing consensus around the thesis. Ansem (blknoiz06) responded: “Agree, I am trying to time this, I think 90k,” sketching a timeline that implies a Q1 2026 window for a new Bitcoin leg higher. Macro strategist Alex Krüger called it a “great post,” while Forward Guidance podcast host Felix Jauvin added: “So very well said. Good to see you man.” This endorsement from respected figures in the trading community lends credibility to the analysis as Bitcoin trades at $113,121 at press time.