Trump China Visit Odds: Traders Split 50/50 on 2025 Trip

Three distinct prediction markets are offering traders exposure to the possibility of a Donald Trump visit to China, with probabilities ranging from 48% to 73% depending on the specific contract terms. Myriad Markets, a product of Decrypt’s parent company DASTAN, hosts the most direct contract, asking whether Trump will physically enter mainland China before December 31, 2025. As of current trading, this market prices the event at approximately 48%, indicating traders are almost evenly split on the outcome. The contract specifically excludes overflights or stopovers in Hong Kong or Taiwan, requiring actual boots on the ground for a “Yes” resolution.

Polymarket offers a broader “Trump travel in 2025” market where China appears among the top potential destinations, trading around 52% probability. Meanwhile, Kalshi—the regulated U.S. event-futures exchange—takes a more focused approach with a contract specifically on whether Trump will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping this year. Kalshi traders show significantly more confidence, pricing a 73% chance of such a high-level meeting occurring, which would likely coincide with a formal state visit to China.

The market activity follows a series of reports from major media outlets suggesting diplomatic channels between Washington and Beijing are warming. Reuters and The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) have reported that Beijing has formally invited Trump, with negotiations for a state visit already well underway. The South China Morning Post (SCMP) has corroborated these reports, indicating that trade deliverables are actively being discussed as part of potential visit preparations.

Additional signals of diplomatic thaw come from the ongoing TikTok negotiations. Reuters reports that Washington and Beijing have agreed on a TikTok framework that includes plans for a Trump-Xi phone call, creating an opening for higher-level meetings. The Associated Press (AP) and The Guardian have confirmed that the White House extended TikTok’s divestiture deadline, suggesting ongoing senior dialogue between the two nations. These developments create the exact type of binary event that prediction markets are designed to price.

Traders monitoring these markets are watching for specific catalysts that could quickly move prices across all platforms. A leaked advance team trip to China, confirmation of a Trump-Xi phone call, or official White House announcements could cause immediate repricing. Each market serves a slightly different purpose: Myriad offers the purest play on an actual physical visit, Kalshi provides regulatory-compliant exposure through its narrower meeting-focused contract, and Polymarket acts as a broader sentiment barometer comparing China against other potential destinations.

The resolution mechanisms also differ slightly between platforms. Myriad’s contract will be confirmed using official White House releases or AP/Reuters reporting, ensuring transparency and verifiability. This attention to detail in contract design reflects the growing sophistication of prediction markets in pricing complex geopolitical events. As diplomatic preparations appear to be accelerating, these markets provide a real-time gauge of market expectations regarding US-China relations.