Standard Chartered Warns of Bitcoin Dip Below $100,000

Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, delivered a sobering assessment to clients this week, stating that a decline below $100,000 now appears “inevitable” as the market digests October’s sell-off and a tepid bounce. The warning comes despite Bitcoin hovering near the mid-$100,000s on Thursday, with spot trading around $108,000 as liquidity thins into the weekend. Kendrick specifically cited Bitcoin’s failure to hold above its recent local high following the October 10 risk-off break and the absence of a strong reflex rally as key factors driving this recalibration.

This tactical shift moves the bank’s focus from whether Bitcoin immediately resumes its upward trend to where the market ultimately finds its bottom. “The decline could mark the last time to ever buy BTC for six figures,” Kendrick emphasized in his latest dispatch, while stressing that any dip below $100,000 should be short-lived. The strategist’s message carefully juxtaposes near-term caution with longer-term conviction, maintaining that this potential air-pocket represents a buying opportunity rather than a trend reversal.

Kendrick identified several critical signposts that could signal Bitcoin’s base-building phase and validate the “last time below $100,000” claim. Chief among these is monitoring capital rotation between gold and bitcoin, along with tracking the trajectory of US dollar liquidity and quantitative tightening. The strategist also highlighted Bitcoin’s technical resilience, noting that the cryptocurrency has respected its 50-week moving average since early 2023—a level he views as an important longer-duration line in the sand.

Market context aligns with Standard Chartered’s cautionary near-term tone. Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has shed roughly ten percent of its value, with macro sensitivity to policy headlines remaining elevated. What matters from here, according to Kendrick’s analysis, is whether these confirmation signals begin to line up. A decisive improvement in dollar liquidity conditions, sustained evidence of rotation back into bitcoin at the expense of gold, and preservation of higher-timeframe trend structures would validate the bank’s optimistic outlook.

Absent these positive developments, Kendrick acknowledges that a deeper retracement cannot be ruled out, though such a scenario would represent a deviation from Standard Chartered’s published roadmap rather than its base case. The bank’s analysis suggests that the current crosscurrents complicate but do not upend their broader cycle map for Bitcoin’s continued appreciation.

Despite the near-term volatility, Standard Chartered remains steadfast in its bullish long-term outlook. As recently as July 2, the bank told clients it expected “the largest dollar rally on record in the second half of 2025,” with Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by December 31. This ambitious target hinges on three dominant drivers: continued ETF inflows, corporate balance-sheet adoption, and regulatory normalization—all of which remain central to Kendrick’s upside case.

The bank’s consistent messaging frames the current market weakness as a temporary setback within a still-intact macro bull thesis that Standard Chartered has championed for months. Kendrick’s warning about a potential dip below $100,000 comes within the same research cycle where the bank reiterated its $200,000 year-end target, suggesting the strategist views any near-term weakness as a strategic entry point rather than a reason for fundamental concern.

For investors navigating this volatility, Standard Chartered’s message is unambiguous: brace for a potential dip under six figures, but treat it as what Kendrick directly calls “the last-ever chance to buy BTC for less than six figures,” provided the medium-term catalysts reassert themselves. At press time, BTC traded at $109,953, hovering precariously near the psychological $100,000 threshold that Kendrick believes may soon be tested but not permanently broken.