Standard Chartered: Buy Bitcoin Dip in 3 Stages Below $100K

Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered has provided specific guidance for Bitcoin investors looking to capitalize on current market conditions. His approach involves determining the maximum amount one can invest in Bitcoin and then executing purchases in three distinct phases. The first stage calls for an immediate 25% allocation, with Kendrick noting that “the dip below 100K overnight well may be the last one ever.” This initial position establishes exposure at what he considers a potentially historic price level.

The second stage involves purchasing another 25% of the maximum allocation, but only if Bitcoin closes above $103,000 on Friday. This conditional trigger provides a technical confirmation of recovery momentum before committing additional capital. The final and largest allocation—50% of the maximum investment—should be deployed “if/when the Bitcoin-gold ratio goes back above 30.” This systematic approach balances immediate opportunity with disciplined risk management through technical and relative value indicators.

The Bitcoin-gold ratio has experienced significant volatility throughout 2025, peaking at 38.6 on January 5 and reaching 36.5 again in August before its recent decline to 25. This dramatic shift reflects gold’s remarkable 66.5% year-to-date gain compared to Bitcoin’s more modest 10.5% appreciation. The ratio’s steady decline since August 12 has been primarily driven by gold’s strong performance, though recent gold price weakness has occasionally positioned Bitcoin for more favorable comparisons.

Market sentiment has notably shifted in favor of gold, with users on prediction platform Myriad estimating an 82% probability that gold will outperform Bitcoin this year. This sentiment reflects the precious metal’s substantial gains and Bitcoin’s recent price volatility, which has cast doubt on BTC’s ability to catch up to gold’s performance. The ratio’s current level of 25 represents a significant departure from earlier highs and creates what Standard Chartered views as a strategic entry point for Bitcoin accumulation.

Analysts have identified the record-long U.S. government shutdown as a primary factor behind recent cryptocurrency weakness. The extended shutdown has been siphoning cash away from institutions that might otherwise deploy capital through lending, equities, or cryptocurrencies. This liquidity drain has created headwinds for digital assets despite otherwise favorable market conditions and growing institutional interest.

BitMEX analysts project that when the shutdown eventually ends and the Treasury resumes normal spending operations, the recovery should be swift and substantial. They describe this phenomenon as a massive liquidity ‘snap-back’ that should trigger a strong relief rally. This anticipated recovery aligns perfectly with Bitcoin’s historical end-of-year seasonal strength, potentially creating a powerful combination of fundamental and seasonal tailwinds for the cryptocurrency market.

The convergence of Kendrick’s strategic accumulation approach, the depressed Bitcoin-gold ratio, and the pending resolution of government spending constraints presents what analysts see as a compelling investment thesis. While gold has dominated performance comparisons this year, the potential for Bitcoin to regain momentum once institutional liquidity normalizes forms the foundation of Standard Chartered’s optimistic outlook and staged buying recommendation.