Introduction
Standard Chartered’s digital assets research head Geoffrey Kendrick has reaffirmed his bullish $200,000 year-end Bitcoin price target, citing accelerating ETF inflows approaching $50 billion and the US government shutdown as key catalysts that could drive the cryptocurrency to break its all-time high within days and reach $135,000 in the coming weeks. Kendrick’s analysis positions Bitcoin as increasingly correlated with macroeconomic risk indicators, reinforcing its role as a maturing financial asset amid deepening political gridlock in Washington.
Key Points
- Bitcoin ETF net inflows currently stand at nearly $50 billion with expectations of additional $20 billion by year-end
- US government shutdown seen as significant catalyst with Bitcoin trading closely correlated to Treasury term premiums and political risk
- Prediction markets indicate 60% probability shutdown lasts 10-29 days, a duration that would likely boost Bitcoin prices throughout the period
ETF Inflows Fuel Bitcoin's Ascent
Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, has identified sustained institutional demand through Bitcoin ETFs as a primary driver behind his optimistic price projections. In his October 2 note to clients, Kendrick highlighted that net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs stand at nearly $50 billion with three months still remaining in the year. This substantial capital injection represents a fundamental shift in market structure that continues to support Bitcoin’s price appreciation.
While gold ETFs have recently outpaced Bitcoin ETF inflows, Kendrick predicts this trend will soon reverse in favor of the digital asset. He noted that inflows have been ramping up over the past week and are expected to continue through year-end. “I would expect at least another $20 billion by year-end,” Kendrick wrote, “a number which would make my $200,000 year-end forecast possible.” This additional capital would represent a significant acceleration from current levels and provide the necessary fuel for Bitcoin’s projected surge.
The demand for Bitcoin ETFs, combined with the cryptocurrency’s increasing correlation with macroeconomic risk indicators, reinforces its evolving role as a maturing financial asset rather than a speculative novelty. Kendrick’s analysis suggests that institutional participation through regulated investment vehicles has fundamentally altered Bitcoin’s market dynamics, creating a more stable foundation for sustained price growth.
Government Shutdown as Unexpected Catalyst
The ongoing US government shutdown presents an unexpected but significant tailwind for Bitcoin prices, according to Kendrick’s analysis. He argues that this shutdown carries more weight than the 2018-2019 episode, when Bitcoin showed little reaction to political gridlock. This time, Kendrick notes that Bitcoin has traded closely with “US government risks,” reflected in Treasury term premiums, positioning it to benefit as political uncertainty deepens.
Prediction market Polymarket indicates a 60% probability the shutdown will last 10 to 29 days, a duration Kendrick said would likely bolster Bitcoin prices throughout the period. This extended uncertainty creates ideal conditions for Bitcoin to demonstrate its value as a non-sovereign asset uncorrelated with traditional political risk. The cryptocurrency’s performance during this period could validate its growing reputation as digital gold in times of governmental instability.
Kendrick’s observation that Bitcoin is now trading in correlation with Treasury term premiums marks a significant evolution in how the asset is perceived by institutional investors. This developing relationship suggests that sophisticated market participants are increasingly viewing Bitcoin through a macroeconomic lens, considering its potential as a hedge against systemic financial risks emanating from Washington.
Price Trajectory and Market Implications
Kendrick’s updated timeline projects Bitcoin breaking past its all-time high within days and reaching $135,000 in the coming weeks, slightly later than his previous forecast but still positioning the cryptocurrency for substantial near-term gains. This more measured approach reflects a recognition of market dynamics while maintaining confidence in the underlying bullish thesis driven by ETF inflows and macroeconomic factors.
The combination of sustained institutional demand through ETFs and political uncertainty creates a powerful convergence of catalysts that could propel Bitcoin to Kendrick’s $200,000 year-end target. His analysis suggests that these factors are not temporary phenomena but represent structural shifts in how Bitcoin is valued and traded within global financial markets.
Standard Chartered’s reaffirmed projection comes at a critical juncture for cryptocurrency markets, as Bitcoin demonstrates increasing maturity as an asset class while maintaining its potential for significant price appreciation. Kendrick’s research provides institutional investors with a framework for understanding how traditional financial analysis can be applied to digital assets, bridging the gap between conventional finance and the emerging cryptocurrency ecosystem.
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