SOL’s Wyckoff Pattern Signals Final Dip Before Q4 Rally

Technical analyst ZYN has identified Solana as transitioning from Phase D to Phase E within the Wyckoff accumulation framework, specifically referencing the ‘Son of Wyckoff’ theory. This pattern suggests that markets typically break upward after completing this final phase. According to ZYN’s analysis shared on social media platform X, the current price dip represents what could be “the last big dip before a big rally in Q4.” The analyst’s chart shows SOL has been trading between $120 and $210, with the recent decline portrayed as a final shakeout before potential upward momentum.

ZYN expressed strong conviction in the pattern’s implications, stating, “I think anyone buying SOL at these levels will be happy in 2-3 months. $500 SOL is programmed this cycle.” This optimistic projection comes despite SOL having dumped over 15% in the past week, which the analysis interprets as part of a longer structural accumulation rather than a bearish reversal. The Wyckoff methodology, developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, has been applied to various markets to identify accumulation and distribution phases.

Analyst Wise Crypto has identified a crucial support zone between $177 and $180 that represents a make-or-break level for SOL’s near-term trajectory. This range aligns with the lower boundary of a rising channel that has guided Solana’s price action since March 2025. The Stochastic RSI indicator currently shows oversold conditions, which historically often precede relief rallies in cryptocurrency markets.

Wise Crypto’s analysis suggests that if SOL can maintain support above $177-$180, the asset could rebound toward the $240-$250 range. However, the analyst also warned of significant downside risk, noting that a break below this support zone could see SOL test the next major support level near $150. This technical setup creates what Wise Crypto describes as a “make-or-break moment” for SOL, advising traders to wait for confirmation of direction before entering new positions.

Fundamental factors are converging with technical signals as institutional interest in Solana grows through ETF filings. Canary Capital has updated its S-1 registration for a Solana ETF that would both hold and stake SOL through a partnership with Marinade Finance. This innovative approach aims to provide investors with exposure to Solana’s price movement while also generating staking rewards, potentially making it attractive to income-focused institutional investors.

Meanwhile, Grayscale’s proposed Solana ETF faces its first regulatory deadline on October 10, 2025. The outcome of this filing could determine whether Solana receives the same institutional flows that boosted Bitcoin and Ethereum following their spot ETF approvals. The parallel development of multiple ETF proposals indicates growing recognition of Solana’s position within the cryptocurrency ecosystem and suggests institutional infrastructure is developing around the asset.

Despite the bullish technical and fundamental developments, market sentiment reflects measured expectations. Data from prediction market platform Polymarket shows traders assigning only a 34% probability that Solana will reach new all-time highs in 2025. This cautious outlook suggests that while analysts see potential for significant upside, the broader market remains skeptical about the timing and magnitude of any potential rally.

The divergence between technical analysis projections and market probability assessments highlights the uncertainty inherent in cryptocurrency markets. While ZYN’s $500 price target represents substantial upside from current levels, the Polymarket data indicates traders see this outcome as relatively unlikely within the current cycle. This sentiment gap may reflect concerns about broader market conditions, regulatory developments, or Solana-specific challenges that could temper bullish projections.