Solana’s Decline: On-Chain Data Reveals Early Whale Exits

Solana’s price action in 2025 has followed a clear but uncomfortable pattern. After reaching an all-time high of approximately $293 in January, the rally quickly lost steam, transitioning into a persistent downtrend. While many traders attributed this weakness to broader crypto market sentiment, Ardi’s on-chain analysis suggests the story began much earlier. The data indicates that the January peak did not mark the start of distribution but rather its culmination. Selling volume was already increasing months prior, well ahead of October 2024, signaling that large holders were positioning for exits long before the price reached its final zenith.

From this perspective, the push to $293 looks less like the beginning of a new expansion phase and more like the last gasp of a rally. Following that point, Solana’s price action began forming a series of lower highs, with each rebound attempt lacking the strength to reclaim the all-time high. This weakness was particularly notable as other major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and BNB managed to achieve new all-time highs during the same period, highlighting Solana’s relative underperformance.

One of the most striking features of the on-chain data is the diverging behavior between different wallet cohorts. Cumulative delta metrics show that retail-sized wallets have remained consistently active throughout the year, even increasing their activity as Solana’s price moved lower. This suggests continued retail interest and accumulation at lower price points.

In stark contrast, the story for mid-sized and institutional wallets is one of steady retreat. Their on-chain activity has been trending downward for months, starting from the January peak and continuing through the present. This exodus of larger, presumably more sophisticated capital indicates a fundamental loss of confidence among players who often drive sustained market moves. The widening gap between persistent retail buying and institutional selling creates a precarious foundation for any price recovery.

Ardi’s analysis raises a critical question about what is currently driving demand for Solana. Outside of general retail activity, one of the few consistent sources of network engagement has been the volatile memecoin sector. Successes like Cat in a Dogs World (MEW), Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT), and Fartcoin (FARTCOIN), which gained traction in late 2024, contributed significantly to Solana’s push toward its highs.

This trend culminated dramatically with the January 2025 launch of the Official Trump ($TRUMP) token on Solana, which experienced massive gains shortly after its debut and provided a final thrust for SOL’s price to its all-time high. However, since that peak, the TRUMP token and other Solana-based memecoins have been trending downward, no longer commanding the same level of attention or trading intensity. This has led to the growing view that Solana’s price is increasingly sensitive—and vulnerable—to the success and hype cycles of memecoins within its ecosystem, a notoriously fickle and speculative driver of value.

At the time of writing, Solana trades at $121.50, representing a 58.6% decline from its January high. The on-chain narrative constructed from Ardi’s data presents a challenging outlook. The early distribution by large holders, the sustained retreat of institutional activity, and the fading tailwind from memecoin mania collectively suggest that Solana’s price weakness is structural, not merely cyclical.

For SOL to mount a sustainable recovery, it would need to attract renewed interest from the mid-sized and institutional cohorts that have been exiting, or find a new, more stable fundamental demand driver beyond the speculative frenzy of tokens like MEW, PNUT, FARTCOIN, and TRUMP. Until then, the network’s price appears heavily dependent on retail traders and the unpredictable waves of memecoin popularity, leaving it exposed to continued volatility and potential further downside.