Solana Transactions Halve Despite ETF Approval Hype

Solana’s network activity has experienced a dramatic contraction, with daily transactions collapsing from a peak of 125 million on July 24, 2025, to approximately 64 million according to CryptoQuant data. This represents a nearly 50% decline in network utilization occurring precisely as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approaches its final deadline to rule on spot Solana ETF filings from major issuers including VanEck, 21Shares, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton. The timing presents a paradox: while regulatory approval appears imminent, fundamental network metrics are deteriorating significantly.

Shivam Thakral, CEO of Indian crypto exchange BuyUcoin, characterized the transaction decline as “a rebalancing away from hype volume,” suggesting that the network is experiencing normalization after periods of inflated activity. The data reveals a steady erosion of Solana’s transaction base despite the positive regulatory developments that typically drive increased network participation and investor interest. This divergence between fundamental metrics and regulatory progress underscores deeper challenges facing the blockchain ecosystem.

Industry experts point to multiple structural factors behind Solana’s transaction decline. Thakral identified “subsiding retail activity and capital rotation into competitors like BNB Chain” as primary drivers, indicating that investors are reallocating capital away from Solana toward alternative blockchain platforms. This capital migration suggests that Solana faces intensifying competition in the crowded layer-1 blockchain space, with BNB Chain emerging as a significant beneficiary.

Thakral further explained that “any friction in validator performance or UX acts like a catalyst for decline,” highlighting technical and user experience challenges that may be exacerbating the transaction drop. The combination of competitive pressure, normalization from previously inflated volumes, and sentiment shift has created a perfect storm for Solana’s network metrics. The CEO summarized the situation as “part normalization, part competitive pressure, and part sentiment shift,” indicating a multifaceted challenge requiring comprehensive solutions.

Despite the transaction decline, regulatory progress continues with the SEC’s final deadline for spot Solana ETF rulings arriving on Friday, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data compiled by Eric Balchunas. The approval appears virtually guaranteed following the SEC’s September decision to greenlight “generic listing standards,” which rendered the specific 19b-4 filings and their deadlines largely procedural. ETF analyst Eric Balchunas confirmed this outlook in a September 30 tweet, stating that Solana ETF approval is “all but confirmed.”

Bitwise reinforced market confidence through an amended Wednesday filing revealing an aggressively competitive 0.20% fee structure for its anticipated Solana ETF. Balchunas responded to this development in a Thursday tweet, noting “Bitwise not playing around” and observing that “low fees have a near-perfect record of attracting investors, so it’s a good sign for inflow potential.” This fee structure positions Bitwise’s offering as highly competitive within the cryptocurrency ETF landscape.

However, price expectations remain tempered despite the regulatory optimism. Thakral cautioned that “Solana is unlikely to break out solo” and is “far more likely to tag along with Bitcoin’s direction.” This assessment suggests that even with anticipated ETF-driven inflows, Solana’s price action will remain correlated with Bitcoin’s market movements rather than experiencing independent bullish momentum. A sustained price increase would likely require both broad ETF-driven inflows and a Solana-specific catalyst to overcome the current headwinds.