Solana (SOL) Faces 95% Crash Risk Amid Bearish Signals

The recent market slump, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions like the renewed Trump tariff saga, has hit altcoins particularly hard, with Solana’s SOL among the worst affected. The asset recently dipped to roughly $77 before a slight recovery above $80, marking a 6% daily loss and continuing a severe downward trajectory. This price action has triggered alarm bells among prominent market observers. Renowned analyst Ali Martinez, observing the asset’s performance on X, highlighted that the ‘super trend indicator’ has flashed a sell signal on SOL’s monthly chart. He noted this pattern last appeared in January 2022, preceding a catastrophic 95% decline in the token’s value. Applying that same magnitude of decline to current levels implies a staggering crash to approximately $4.

Martinez further warned investors to monitor the $76 support zone closely, stating that a decisive break below it could open the door to further significant pullbacks toward $53, $35, and even $23. This bearish outlook is echoed by other analysts. Sjuul | AltCryptoGems recently argued that SOL ‘truly looks compromised on the high time frame’ and is ‘basically trading in a big no man’s land.’ He contends that as long as the price remains suppressed beneath the $110 resistance level, SOL faces the risk of a deep retracement to as low as $20. These projections, sourced from data platforms like CoinGecko, underscore the profound technical damage sustained by the leading altcoin.

Despite the overwhelmingly negative technical picture and the broader crypto market’s depressed condition, not all signals point inexorably downward. A key technical analysis tool, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggests a potential short-term bounce could be brewing. The RSI gauges the speed and magnitude of recent price movements to identify overbought or oversold conditions, with readings below 30 typically indicating an asset is oversold and may be due for a rally. Data shows SOL’s weekly RSI has dipped well into this oversold territory.

X user Mags revealed that the asset’s weekly RSI has reached the same level it was at in December 2022, when SOL was trading around $8. In the subsequent months, the token embarked on a major bull run, leading the analyst to question if history could repeat itself. Another factor offering a sliver of optimism is the recent shift in Solana’s exchange netflow data, tracked by CoinGlass. Earlier, inflows to exchanges exceeded outflows, suggesting investors were moving funds from self-custody to trading platforms—often interpreted as a bearish pre-sale signal. However, in recent weeks, this trend has reversed, with outflows surpassing inflows. This shift could indicate a reduction in immediate sell-side pressure on centralized platforms, potentially laying the groundwork for stabilization.

The current landscape for Solana’s SOL, as reported by CryptoPotato, presents investors with a stark dichotomy. On one side, respected analysts like Ali Martinez and Sjuul | AltCryptoGems are issuing severe warnings based on historical patterns and broken technical structures, with predictions ranging from a deep retracement to a near-total wipeout. The breach of the $76 support level is viewed as a critical line in the sand that could accelerate declines.

On the other side, traditional contrarian indicators like the oversold weekly RSI and the reversal to negative exchange netflows suggest the selling pressure may have become overextended, creating conditions for a corrective bounce. For SOL holders, the path forward is fraught with volatility. The bearish monthly signals cannot be ignored, yet the oversold conditions warn against expecting a straight-line decline. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether SOL can defend key supports and capitalize on any oversold rebound, or if the bearish super trend indicator will once again foreshadow a devastating crypto crash, validating the most pessimistic forecasts circulating among market commentators.