Solana Rebounds 6% But Faces Key $98-$108 Resistance Test

The recent 6% bounce in Solana’s price, lifting it from the lower-$80 range, provided temporary relief to traders but has done little to alter the prevailing negative market structure. Analysts note that SOL is currently consolidating around the $83–$87 area, which is viewed as critical short-term support. The broader trend, however, remains decisively bearish. SOL has lost its prior monthly support between $98 and $100, a level that has now flipped into resistance. The price action continues to exhibit a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, and SOL is trading below key moving averages, reinforcing the dominance of sellers in the market.

Despite this bearish backdrop, some oversold signals are beginning to appear on higher timeframes. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped into levels that have historically coincided with stabilization phases. Similarly, the Money Flow Index is nearing extreme readings, suggesting that the intensity of selling pressure may be waning. These technical glimmers, however, have not yet translated into decisive buying momentum. Should the current $85 support area fail, analysts have identified downside targets clustering around $78–$80, with deeper historical support cited near the $70 level.

Beyond the price chart, on-chain data and institutional flows add significant complexity and pressure to Solana’s outlook. Over a 72-hour period, more than 1 million SOL reportedly left centralized exchanges. Analysts interpret this substantial movement not as a sign of accumulation but as stress-driven repositioning, likely reflecting uncertainty among larger holders. This exodus from exchanges coincides with a notable withdrawal of institutional capital.

Solana-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded approximately $11.9 million in net outflows, marking the second-largest withdrawal on record. Historically, such large ETF outflows have sometimes appeared near market capitulation phases. While this could signal a potential exhaustion point for sellers, it also actively limits near-term upside potential by reducing institutional participation. Further compounding the pressure, data indicates that accumulation by long-term holders has slowed, removing a key source of price support that has cushioned SOL during past declines.

For any prospect of a meaningful and sustainable recovery, analysts are unanimous: Solana must reclaim the $98–$108 price region. This zone represents a confluence of critical technical and psychological barriers. It encapsulates the former support level between $98 and $100 that has now turned into resistance, and it sits just below the round-number psychological barrier of $100. February forecasts from several market trackers have suggested SOL could trade within this range if it manages to stabilize above its current precarious levels.

The path forward is binary at this juncture. A sustained move above $108 could open the door to a broader reassessment of the bearish trend, potentially signaling a shift in market structure. Conversely, repeated rejection at this key resistance zone would powerfully reinforce the prevailing downtrend. Solana, therefore, remains in a definitive wait-and-see phase. Traders are closely monitoring whether the current support can hold to form a durable base, or if another leg lower toward the $78–$80 targets is necessary before a true recovery attempt can begin.