Introduction
Solana’s recent recovery attempt has faltered, with the SOL price struggling to overcome a critical resistance zone near $85. After failing to settle above the $90 mark, the cryptocurrency now faces the threat of a renewed decline, as technical indicators turn bearish and key support levels come into focus. The market’s next move hinges on whether SOL can decisively break through immediate hurdles or succumb to selling pressure.
Key Points
- SOL faces a key bearish trend line with resistance at $85 on the hourly chart, hindering upward movement.
- A close above $96 resistance could trigger a rally toward $105-$112, while a break below $80 support may lead to a drop to $70.
- Technical indicators are bearish, with the MACD gaining pace in negative territory and the RSI below the 50 level.
A Stalled Recovery and Mounting Resistance
Solana’s price action, as tracked on the Kraken exchange against the US Dollar, shows a recovery wave that has lost momentum. SOL managed to climb from lows near $68, clearing the $78 and $82 levels and even surpassing the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the drop from its $106 swing high. However, the rally met stiff resistance near $90, a level where bearish activity intensified. The price has since retreated and is now trading below $85, a psychologically significant threshold that also sits below the 100-hour simple moving average—a bearish near-term signal.
Compounding the challenge for bulls is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance precisely at $85 on the hourly SOL/USD chart. This trend line, coupled with the moving average, creates a formidable barrier. For the recovery to regain legitimacy, SOL must achieve a successful close above this confluence of resistance. The next major hurdle lies at $92, which aligns with the 61.8% Fib retracement level. A decisive break above $96, however, is identified as the main resistance that could open the path toward $105 and potentially $112.
The Downside Risk: Key Support Levels in Focus
Should Solana fail to conquer the $85 resistance zone, the risk of a downside continuation grows significantly. The immediate support to watch is near the $82 level, which previously acted as resistance during the recovery. A breach below this could see the price test the $80 support zone, a level that provided a base for the recent upward move.
A break below $80 would signal a more profound weakness, likely triggering a move toward the $75 support area. The analysis suggests that a daily close below $75 could accelerate selling pressure, potentially pushing SOL toward the $70 zone in the near term. These descending support levels—$82, $80, $75, and $70—now form a critical ladder that will determine the depth of any potential correction.
Bearish Technical Indicators Signal Caution
The technical picture for SOL/USD reinforces the cautious outlook. The hourly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is not only in bearish territory but is also gaining pace to the downside, suggesting increasing selling momentum. Concurrently, the hourly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned below the neutral 50 level, indicating that bearish pressure is currently dominant in the market.
These indicators align with the price’s failure below key moving averages and trend line resistance. For traders and investors, this confluence of technical signals underscores the importance of the identified levels. The major resistance levels at $85 and $92, and the major support levels at $82 and $75, now serve as the primary benchmarks for gauging Solana’s next directional move amidst broader cryptocurrency market movements often correlated with majors like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
📎 Related coverage from: newsbtc.com
