Introduction
Solana (SOL) continues its six-week losing streak, trading near critical support levels as market data signals growing bearish sentiment. Declining open interest, negative funding rates, and weakening on-chain profitability point to heightened downside risk. Analysts warn that failure to hold key support zones could trigger another leg lower in the near term.
Key Points
- Derivatives data shows open interest falling while volume surges, signaling liquidations rather than new buying interest.
- Only 20% of Solana addresses are currently in profit, indicating weakening holder confidence and potential capitulation risk.
- Key technical levels to watch include support at $75–$67 and resistance at $82–$83, with a break below support likely triggering further declines.
A Broader Market Retreat and Technical Breakdown
Solana’s latest price decline is unfolding against a backdrop of widespread weakness in the digital asset market, with traders increasingly adopting risk-off positioning. After weeks of steady losses, SOL has slipped below key technical levels, raising critical questions about the durability of current support. According to data tracked on CoinMarketCap, Solana recently traded in the high-$70 range, a significant retreat from its failure to maintain momentum above $95 earlier in the year. This move extends a six-week losing streak and places the asset near zones that analysts say will likely determine its next directional move.
Technically, the outlook remains challenging. Solana is trading below its major moving averages, while momentum indicators continue trending downward. Although RSI readings are near oversold territory, analysts caution this reflects sustained selling pressure rather than a confirmed reversal signal. The immediate technical battleground is clear, with the asset’s ability to hold or break below specific price levels set to dictate near-term momentum.
Derivatives Data Signals Growing Bearish Conviction
Market data from derivatives platforms reveals a pronounced shift in trader sentiment toward the downside. Open interest in Solana futures fell roughly 2% to about $5.09 billion, even as trading volume surged sharply. This combination typically indicates a wave of liquidations rather than fresh buying activity, suggesting forced selling is contributing to the price pressure.
Further bearish signals are evident in funding rates, which have turned negative, and the long-to-short ratio dropping below 1. This indicates that more traders in the perpetual swaps market are now positioning for further price dips. Notably, this short bias has also appeared among larger accounts, even as retail traders maintain leveraged long exposure on major exchanges like Binance and OKX. Analysts warn this imbalance between institutional and retail positioning could exacerbate volatility if critical support levels fail to hold.
On-Chain Metrics Reflect Weakening Holder Confidence
On-chain data supports the cautious outlook painted by price action and derivatives. Figures from the analytics firm Glassnode indicate that only about 20% of Solana addresses are currently in profit. This is the lowest level of profitability since late 2023. During previous market downturns, similar readings have often appeared closer to capitulation phases, suggesting that the current downside risk may not yet be exhausted.
Another concerning signal is the notable slowdown in long-term holder accumulation. Earlier in the year, these steadfast investors actively absorbed supply during pullbacks, providing a foundation of support. However, as the price dropped below $100, this accumulation has slowed. Analysts interpret this trend as declining conviction among the investor cohort that is typically most resilient, further undermining the market’s structural support.
Key Levels and the Path Forward for SOL
For traders monitoring the charts on platforms like TradingView, specific price zones have become focal points. Immediate support is clustered between $75 and $67. A decisive and sustained break below this region could expose significantly lower targets near $62 or even $60 if selling accelerates. On the upside, any recovery attempt will face immediate resistance around the $82–$83 zone, where a bearish trend line has formed.
Solana’s near-term outlook hinges squarely on whether buyers can successfully defend the February lows. Without a sustained reclaim of higher resistance zones, the broader market structure suggests the downtrend remains intact. The current period of crypto market uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on sentiment, making the defense of these technical levels paramount for SOL to avoid another leg lower in the coming weeks.
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