Solana Price Alert: Analysts Warn of 50% Collapse

After substantial gains in late summer, Solana (SOL) has entered a steep decline over recent months, with prominent analysts now forecasting further deterioration. The most alarming prediction comes from X user Ali Martinez, who analyzed SOL’s performance from March 2024 onward. Martinez identified what he describes as a textbook ‘head and shoulders’ pattern—a classic bearish formation in technical analysis. The pattern consists of three peaks: the left shoulder formed earlier in 2024, the head taking shape when Solana reached approximately $240 late last year, and a right shoulder developing recently.

According to Martinez’s interpretation, the critical element is the ‘neckline,’ a support level that, if broken, signals a confirmed downtrend. Based on this formation, he argues that SOL’s valuation could sink to as low as $66.20. This target represents a staggering 50% collapse from the asset’s current price level near $132. The ‘head and shoulders’ pattern is widely watched by traders, and a break below the neckline is typically viewed as a strong indicator of continued decline, lending significant weight to Martinez’s bearish forecast for the cryptocurrency.

Adding to the bearish technical outlook is Solana’s momentum indicator. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes on a scale from 0 to 100, is flashing a warning sign. An RSI reading above 70 is traditionally considered to indicate an asset is in overbought territory, often preceding a price correction. According to the source material, SOL’s current RSI stands at around 69, perilously close to that bearish threshold.

This near-overbought condition suggests that the recent buying momentum may be exhausting itself, leaving the asset vulnerable to a downturn. Analyst Crypto Tony echoed this cautious sentiment on X, suggesting a potential minor uptick to $134 could be a final opportunity for bears. ‘Playing this range until we break. Move up to $134, and then I will be looking to short down,’ they stated, indicating a strategy to bet on a price decline following a brief resistance test. The combination of the ominous chart pattern and weakening momentum paints a concerning picture for SOL bulls in the short term.

Despite the prevailing pessimism, not all market observers are convinced of an imminent collapse. A contingent of analysts presents a more optimistic scenario. X user TraderSZ, who commands an audience of nearly 700,000 followers, predicted that SOL’s price might surpass $160 in the coming days. Another analyst, James, set a more conservative but still bullish near-term target of $152.

This bullish perspective finds some support in on-chain data concerning SOL’s exchange netflow. Over the past several months, data from CoinGlass indicates that outflows from centralized exchanges have significantly exceeded inflows. This trend suggests investors are moving their SOL holdings from trading platforms to self-custody methods, such as personal wallets. In cryptocurrency markets, this is generally interpreted as a bullish signal because it reduces the immediate selling pressure on exchanges; assets held in self-custody are less likely to be liquidated quickly. Conversely, a surge of assets flowing onto exchanges is often seen as preparation for a large-scale sell-off.

Thus, Solana finds itself at a crossroads, pulled between starkly different narratives. On one side, technical analysts like Ali Martinez point to classic chart patterns and momentum indicators warning of a brutal crash toward $66. On the other, on-chain data reveals holder behavior that typically precedes accumulation, while other traders forecast a rebound. This clash of signals—between bearish technicals and potentially bullish fundamentals—creates profound uncertainty, leaving the market to answer whether Solana is poised for a dramatic collapse or preparing to stage an unexpected recovery.