Solana Nears $146 Resistance: Breakout or Rejection Ahead?

Solana’s recent price action presents a classic technical dilemma. Trading near $140 with a 24-hour gain of 2% and a weekly advance of nearly 11%, SOL has demonstrated clear momentum, supported by a daily trading volume exceeding $5.5 billion. However, as reported by CryptoPotato, the asset remains below the crucial $146–$149 resistance zone. Analyst Man of Bitcoin interprets the recent rise as a corrective wave within a larger downtrend, specifically labeling it a “wave-4 correction.” His analysis, cited in the source material, posits that as long as SOL stays under $146, the risk of the downtrend resuming remains significant, with potential downside targets near $118 and $107.

The significance of a daily close above $146 cannot be overstated for this bearish thesis. Such a move would, according to the analyst, “weaken the bearish view” and invalidate the anticipated wave-5 decline. Until that occurs, the structure is considered vulnerable to reversal. This creates a clear line in the sand for traders: a rejection at this level could trigger a sell-off toward the cited targets, while a decisive breakout would likely fuel further buying momentum and challenge higher price levels.

Countering the cautious technical outlook are several potent bullish indicators. CryptoCurb has highlighted a significant development on the 3-day chart: a MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) buy signal. This is reportedly the first such signal since April 2025, when SOL was trading near $95. That previous signal preceded a substantial rally, lending historical weight to the current pattern. CryptoCurb’s commentary, “$200+ with haste,” captured in a tweet, suggests strong conviction that this momentum indicator could foreshadow another powerful upward move from the current price around $138.

This optimistic view is bolstered by substantial on-chain activity. Data indicates that large wallet holders, or “whales,” are increasing their exposure to SOL. As noted, “Whales are increasing their long positions in expecting $SOL rise.” Furthermore, reports from CryptoPotato show steady accumulation by these larger accounts since early January, signaling a potential shift in sentiment among sophisticated, long-term holders. This accumulation is occurring alongside a significant expansion of the Solana ecosystem’s liquidity, with the stablecoin supply on the network now totaling more than $15 billion according to DefiLlama data. This growth in stablecoins typically reflects increased usage and capital flow, providing a fundamental tailwind for the native asset.

Beneath the daily price volatility, a foundation of steady institutional demand provides underlying support for Solana. As reported by CryptoBusy, ETFs and other structured products now hold a substantial position of over 28 million SOL, worth approximately $3.81 billion. This institutional holding has remained resilient through recent market swings, indicating a commitment that extends beyond short-term trading fluctuations. This deep-pocketed demand acts as a stabilizing force and a source of consistent buying pressure.

The immediate path for SOL is now a test of conviction. The bullish case, supported by the MACD signal, whale accumulation, and institutional holdings, requires a confirmed break above the $146–$149 resistance to gain full credibility. The bearish corrective count, meanwhile, remains valid only if this level holds firm. For traders and investors, the current juncture demands caution; the conflicting signals suggest that the next major move will be decisive. All eyes are on the $146 level—a breakout could unlock a path toward the $200 region hinted at by bulls, while a rejection may see the market retest support levels much lower, validating the more cautious wave-count analysis.