Solana Faces 75% Crash Risk as Analysts Warn of Bearish Pattern

Analyst Crypto Bullet has issued a stark warning for Solana investors, suggesting the cryptocurrency risks a massive 75% price crash from current levels. The bearish outlook stems from technical analysis showing SOL completed a “clear 5-wave Impulse to the upside that ended in January” when the altcoin reached its all-time high of $293. According to Crypto Bullet, this pattern completion signals that Solana’s bull market is “likely over” and the cryptocurrency now faces an ABC corrective wave pattern in the coming months.

The analyst’s projection suggests Solana could experience a painful C wave decline following a potential bounce to the $240-$250 area for the B wave. Crypto Bullet affirmed that the cryptocurrency has likely completed the B wave, though he cautioned it could still see a bounce to a new higher high “to trap more people” before the breakdown. His mid-term target for the C wave stands at $40, representing catastrophic losses for SOL holders who entered at higher price levels.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Crypto Bullet stated in his analysis that “Solana looks cooked” regardless of whether it achieves a higher high before the potential breakdown. This grim assessment comes as Solana struggles to maintain crucial support levels, having fallen below the $180 support to retest recent lows amid broader market volatility that has seen the altcoin lose the $200 level once again.

Analyst Ted Pillows has identified additional fundamental pressures contributing to Solana’s weakness, noting that “Solana treasury companies are in free fall right now.” This institutional dimension suggests the recent price dump is partially driven by halted institutional bidding, creating a vacuum of buying pressure that could prolong SOL’s recovery. Pillows asserted that “until these companies show some recovery, I think Solana’s price recovery will be difficult,” highlighting the interconnected nature of ecosystem health and token price performance.

The institutional concerns compound the technical warnings as Solana tests critical support areas that have defined its trading range throughout the year. The cryptocurrency started the week by recovering from last week’s correction to its two-month low of $168, briefly attempting to reclaim the $210 resistance on Tuesday before the recent market volatility erased those gains. This failure to maintain momentum above key resistance levels has reinforced bearish arguments about Solana’s deteriorating market structure.

Despite the overwhelming bearish predictions, some market watchers maintain that Solana’s bullish outlook remains intact. Analyst Man of Bitcoin highlighted that SOL’s price is potentially forming a 1-2 setup that could send its price back to the $200-$210 area. This more optimistic view hinges on Solana maintaining support above the $170 level, which the analyst identifies as the critical threshold for the bullish scenario to continue playing out.

Meanwhile, Crypto Yapper has identified technical factors that could trigger a near-term rebound, noting that Solana is currently retesting a double support in the daily chart. According to his analysis, SOL’s price is testing both the lower boundary of a 2-month falling wedge formation and the crucial $170-$180 horizontal level that has served as major support and resistance throughout the year. This confluence of technical factors could set the stage for a 15%-20% bounce if the levels hold.

Crypto Yapper’s analysis suggests that maintaining these support levels in the daily and weekly timeframe could spark a rebound that propels Solana’s price to retest the falling wedge’s upper boundary and the crucial horizontal resistance around the $210-220 mark. This would represent a significant recovery from current levels and potentially invalidate the more extreme bearish predictions, though it remains contingent on SOL holding above the identified support zones.

As of current trading, SOL sits at $182, representing a 12.6% decline in the daily timeframe, placing it squarely at the convergence of competing technical forecasts. The cryptocurrency faces a definitive test at the $170-$180 support zone, with the outcome likely determining whether it embarks on a recovery toward $210 or begins the devastating decline toward $40 that Crypto Bullet has projected.

The diverging analyst views reflect the heightened uncertainty in cryptocurrency markets and the particular vulnerability of altcoins like Solana during periods of increased volatility. With the monthly candle still having two weeks to close, traders and investors face a critical decision point: whether to prepare for “serious downside” as warned by bearish analysts or position for a potential rebound as suggested by more optimistic technical setups.