Solana Faces 50% Drop Risk as Bearish Pattern Confirmed

The technical picture for Solana has turned decisively bearish following a confirmed breakdown from a critical trading range. After trading between $120 and $250 for much of 2024, SOL lost its macro support over the last weekend of January, closing the month near $105. This failure to hold support was exacerbated by a broader market sell-off that dragged Bitcoin toward multi-year lows, pushing Solana below its own bull market lows from the previous year to a current price of $93.28—a 27.9% weekly decline. Market observer Alex Clay affirmed that SOL has “started to look bad,” noting the loss of an important support zone as the primary catalyst for the negative shift.

The core of the bearish argument centers on the confirmation of a macro Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern on SOL’s weekly chart, a formation that has been developing since early 2024. The pattern’s left shoulder formed during the Q1-Q2 2024 rally, the head during the late 2024 and early 2025 run to its All-Time High of $293, and the right shoulder after the Q3 2025 rally. The neckline of this bearish formation sits around the $105 area. With the recent crash, SOL has fallen below this neckline. A weekly close below $105 would confirm it as resistance, validating the pattern. Clay warns that the first measured target for the H&S pattern is around $42, which would represent a devastating 55% correction from current levels.

The bearish technical structure has prompted a chorus of warnings from other market analysts, who see a high probability of further declines. Sjuul from AltCryptoGems described the Solana chart as giving “a truly panic-inducing feeling,” pointing to a “vast no man’s land” below current prices, indicating a lack of strong support until much lower levels. Crypto Tony echoed this sentiment, asserting that after SOL broke the $100 low “with conviction,” the next major support zone sits around $50. He considers a correction to this area “obvious,” especially while Bitcoin continues to search for a market bottom.

Adding to the technical concerns, analyst Altcoin Sherpa highlighted that Solana has also lost the 200-Week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which he described as “a last stand area before $75 or lower.” He noted that while Solana’s reputation as “the gambling chain” leads to strong price reactions—both positive and negative—it also means corrections tend to be exceptionally severe. This confluence of broken supports, confirmed patterns, and bearish momentum indicators paints what analysts collectively describe as a “grim” outlook for SOL’s price action in the near term.

Amid the deteriorating technical landscape, institutional perspectives have also adjusted. Major financial institution Standard Chartered recently revised its near-term forecast for Solana downward. As reported, the bank trimmed its end-of-year price target from $310 to $250, citing the extended time required for the network’s next major use case to achieve scale. This represents a 19% reduction in its near-term expectations, aligning with the cautious sentiment driven by technical breakdowns.

However, Standard Chartered’s long-term outlook remains decidedly bullish, creating a stark dichotomy. The bank forecasts SOL reaching $2,000 by 2030. This optimism is predicated on Solana evolving “from memecoins to micropayments” and ceasing to be “a one-trick pony.” This institutional view underscores a central narrative for Solana: its current price crisis is intertwined with its perceived utility. The immediate future is dominated by technical breakdowns and speculative outflows, while the long-term valuation hinges on the network’s successful expansion into broader, more sustainable use cases like micropayments.