Solana Breaks Below $100 as Bearish Pressure Mounts

The Solana price has entered a new phase of market anxiety after decisively losing the $100 level, a psychological anchor that had provided support for much of the past year. This breach has shifted the narrative from recovery to damage control, with the token dipping to around $98—its lowest point in nearly ten months. The move extends a punishing downtrend, with SOL losing nearly 20% over the past week and approximately 25% over the last month. As prices fell, trading activity thinned, with both spot volume and derivatives participation declining. Data indicates falling open interest, suggesting that long positions are being unwound rather than a surge in aggressive short selling, pointing to a market in retreat rather than one facing a speculative attack.

This decline did not occur in isolation. A wave of market-wide liquidations over the weekend, combined with thin liquidity, amplified downside moves across major cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, macroeconomic concerns have resurfaced to weigh on sentiment. Renewed expectations of tighter U.S. monetary policy followed former President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, a choice markets view as hawkish. This macro overlay has added a layer of systemic pressure to the already fragile crypto market structure, exacerbating the sell-off in assets like Solana.

From a technical perspective, the SOLUSD chart shows a structure that has significantly weakened. The break below $100 confirmed a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, with the Solana price now hovering well beneath its declining short-term moving averages. Bollinger Bands are widening, and price action remains pinned near the lower band, suggesting downward momentum remains dominant rather than stabilizing. Momentum indicators underscore the intense selling pressure. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 25, placing SOL deep in oversold territory. While this condition increases the probability of short-term technical bounces, it does not, on its own, signal a trend reversal.

The immediate focus for traders has shifted to identifying where the decline might halt. The $95 area is being watched closely as near-term support, followed by a broader zone between $92 and $90. Below these levels, larger historical support levels at $85 and $80 stand out as critical floors. Some on-chain and pattern analyses suggest that if the current selling accelerates, these thinner support zones could fail, potentially exposing even deeper price zones later in the year. For any meaningful reversal of the bearish trend, Solana would need to reclaim the $110 level and hold above key moving averages. Until that occurs, any price rallies are likely to be viewed as corrective moves within a broader downtrend.

Despite the overwhelmingly bearish price forecast and technical picture, Solana’s underlying network metrics present a contrasting story of resilience. January transaction counts rose sharply, and recent data shows continued growth in on-chain activity and stablecoin usage. This indicates that developer and user engagement with the blockchain itself remains robust, decoupled from the short-term speculative moves in the SOL token’s price. Institutional interest has been mixed but not absent; earlier January inflows into Solana-related investment products were offset by more recent outflows from Solana ETFs, reflecting cautious but ongoing evaluation by larger capital.

This divergence creates a complex landscape for investors. The active fundamentals suggest long-term viability and utility, which could provide a foundation for a eventual recovery. However, in the immediate term, the technical picture and macro-driven market sentiment clearly dominate price action. The market’s immediate test will be whether the identified support levels can hold against the prevailing selling pressure. Until Solana can demonstrate sustained price strength above key resistance, the network’s operational health will remain a secondary concern for traders focused on the chart’s bearish trajectory.