Ripple CTO Schwartz Gives Reality Check on XRP $100 Price Target

David Schwartz, the former Chief Technology Officer of Ripple and a key architect of the XRP Ledger, recently addressed fervent community speculation during a Q&A on X. The discussion centered on whether XRP could realistically achieve price levels between $50 and $100. Rather than offering a simple bullish or bearish pronouncement, Schwartz applied a framework of rational market behavior to assess the probability of such outcomes. He refused to outright dismiss the possibility, but his analysis served as a significant reality check for enthusiasts promoting these lofty targets.

Schwartz’s core argument hinges on how markets price collective belief and conviction. He posited that if a meaningful number of rational investors genuinely believed there was even a modest chance of XRP reaching $100 within a few years, that belief would be immediately reflected in the asset’s current price. In such a scenario, holders would be unwilling to sell XRP at prices far below $10, and buyers with that conviction would rapidly absorb the available supply, driving the price upward. The fact that XRP continues to trade well below $2, struggling to establish that level as support, indicates to Schwartz that very few market participants actually assign a serious probability to a triple-digit outcome.

This perspective challenges a popular narrative among some XRP proponents. Critics of the $100 target have long cited the enormous market capitalization and capital inflow required, suggesting more modest targets like $10 are more realistic first steps. Schwartz’s remarks align with this cautious reasoning, emphasizing that cryptocurrency markets are more rational than they are often given credit for and that current trading levels are a revealing indicator of actual investor expectations.

Schwartz grounded his market analysis with a dose of personal humility, drawing on his own history of underestimating crypto assets. He recounted initially considering milestones like XRP trading above $0.25 or Bitcoin reaching $100 as impossible dreams. His point was not that past skepticism invalidates future gains, but that personal disbelief is irrelevant to market mechanics. The market’s pricing is a function of aggregated belief, not any single individual’s assessment of feasibility.

However, Schwartz introduced a critical caveat that leaves the door open for dramatic price appreciation. He noted his personal belief that most significant cryptocurrency bull runs have been driven by unpredictable external changes—regulatory shifts, macroeconomic events, or novel technological adoptions that were not widely anticipated. This acknowledgment means that, while the rational market currently prices a $100 XRP as highly improbable, an unforeseen catalyst could alter that calculus entirely. Thus, his view does not declare a $100 XRP impossible but questions the logic of confidently promoting it based on current market evidence.

In a follow-up exchange, Schwartz addressed a comparison between XRP reaching $100 and Bitcoin’s historic journey to $1,000. He clarified that the unlikelihood of such a move for XRP is more dependent on the magnitude of the multiple than the asset’s specific history. A ten-fold increase in XRP’s price from current levels, he argued, is about as unlikely as a ten-fold increase in Bitcoin or Ethereum right now.

This comparison places the discussion in a broader cryptocurrency context. It suggests that the probability of XRP achieving a 10x gain is not uniquely low but is comparable to the challenge facing the two largest crypto assets by market capitalization. The analysis shifts the focus from XRP-specific narratives to a more universal principle of market scaling and investor conviction. For Schwartz, the market’s collective judgment on potential 10x gains across major assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP is reflected in their present valuations, making ambitious short-term predictions for any of them difficult to justify based on current sentiment.