Prediction Markets Bet on Crypto-Friendly Fed Chair Under Trump

The political prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi have placed a decisive bet on the future leadership of the United States Federal Reserve. According to the latest odds, Kevin Hassett, who served as director of the National Economic Council under former President Donald Trump, is viewed as the overwhelming favorite to replace current Chair Jerome Powell. At the time of writing, Hassett’s probability of securing the position has spiked to 66% on Polymarket and 74% on Kalshi. These figures represent a significant market consensus, suggesting traders are heavily discounting a Trump electoral victory and his subsequent appointment of a loyalist to the world’s most influential central bank.

This surge in odds is not occurring in a vacuum. It coincides with reported internal resistance to reforms within the Federal Reserve system, creating a backdrop of institutional tension. Veteran officials are reportedly pushing back against proposed changes, highlighting the political and bureaucratic complexities that will surround any leadership transition. The prediction markets, therefore, are not just betting on a person but on a profound shift in the Fed’s governance and policy priorities, with digital assets positioned at the center of that change.

Kevin Hassett’s market-perceived advantage stems directly from his established record with the digital asset industry, which marks a potential departure from the more cautious stance of the current Fed leadership. His crypto-friendly reputation is built on several key pillars. Most notably, Hassett served on the advisory council of Coinbase, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the United States. Furthermore, he has disclosed holding a seven-figure financial stake in the exchange, directly aligning his personal portfolio with the success of the crypto sector.

Perhaps most significantly from a policy perspective, Hassett led the White House’s digital asset working group during the Trump administration. This role placed him at the forefront of shaping the executive branch’s approach to cryptocurrency regulation and innovation. For an industry that has frequently criticized the Federal Reserve and other regulators for creating a hostile environment through enforcement actions and a lack of clear rules, Hassett’s potential ascent is interpreted as a bullish signal. His leadership could pivot the Fed towards a more accommodating regulatory framework and greater openness to integrating digital assets into the traditional financial system.

The speculation has already drawn commentary from prominent figures within the crypto advocacy community. Caitlin Long, founder and CEO of Wyoming-based Custodia Bank and a long-time proponent of crypto-friendly banking regulations, publicly commented on the development on social media platform X. While her full statement is not detailed in the provided text, her engagement underscores the high level of industry interest in the Fed’s future leadership. For entities like Custodia Bank, which has sought a master account from the Federal Reserve to operate as a crypto-native bank, the chairmanship could directly impact their operational viability and the broader landscape for digital asset custodians.

The stakes extend far beyond cryptocurrency. The Federal Reserve chair influences monetary policy, financial stability, banking regulation, and the international role of the U.S. dollar. Appointing a chair with Hassett’s specific background would signal a prioritization of financial innovation and potentially a different approach to inflation, interest rates, and the central bank’s balance sheet. The reported pushback from veteran Fed officials against internal reforms suggests that any new chair, particularly one with an outsider perspective focused on digital assets, would likely face significant institutional challenges in implementing their vision. The prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are thus capturing a multifaceted bet on politics, policy, and the future of money itself.