Monero Surges 23% as Privacy Coins Diverge Amid Futures Speculation

In a surprising market divergence, Monero (XMR) has posted impressive gains of 23% over the past week while fellow privacy coin Zcash (ZEC) has shed roughly 25% during the same period. According to CoinGecko data, Monero currently trades at $406 while Zcash hovers around $480, creating a stark contrast in performance within the same cryptocurrency niche. This divergence comes amid a generally quiet Thanksgiving crypto market landscape, making the opposing movements even more pronounced.

The broader privacy coin sector has suffered significant losses, down nearly 40% for the week, which makes Monero’s surge a major outlier. From a market capitalization perspective, Monero stands as the only top performer in this category, showing 4.1% gains on the day while both Zcash and Dash (DASH) are down 4.4% and 7.3% respectively. This performance gap highlights the complex dynamics at play within the privacy-focused cryptocurrency segment.

Analysis of market data reveals that Monero’s recent upward movement is primarily driven by futures market activity rather than organic spot buying. According to CoinGlass data, the aggregate spot bid-ask delta at 10% depth shows sustained sell pressure, while the perpetual bid-ask delta at the same depth has remained positive. This technical indicator suggests that leveraged positions are fueling the rally rather than genuine investor accumulation.

The evidence becomes clearer when examining the spot and perpetual cumulative volume deltas (CVD), which measure the differences between total bid and ask volumes. While spot CVD remained steady, futures CVD showed an upward trend, confirming that speculative activity in derivative markets is the primary driver behind Monero’s price appreciation. Coupled with rising open interest—the total number of open positions—the data paints a picture of a futures-led rally that may lack fundamental support.

Typically, rallies driven primarily by perpetual futures are considered weak, especially when they lack follow-through from spot buyers. This dynamic suggests that Monero’s recent uptrend could prove vulnerable if investors begin unwinding their leveraged positions, potentially leading to a rapid reversal of gains.

According to Quinten van Welzen, head of strategy & communications at Zano, the divergence between Monero and Zcash reflects market mechanics rather than changing fundamentals. “The privacy meta has been gaining popularity, and both Monero and Zcash have benefited from it,” van Welzen told Decrypt. “Short-term moves like Monero being up while Zcash is down mostly reflect positioning, leverage, and timing rather than a reversal in the underlying demand for privacy.”

This expert analysis suggests that the current dynamic represents capital rotation within the privacy sector rather than a fundamental shift in investor sentiment toward privacy features. Both Monero and Zcash have maintained their positions as dominant players in the privacy coin narrative, largely unaffected by broader macroeconomic uncertainty that typically impacts other cryptocurrency assets.

The current situation illustrates how technical factors like positioning and leverage can create temporary divergences even between assets with similar fundamental characteristics. This capital rotation dynamic means that if investors unwind their Monero positions, profits could potentially rotate back into Zcash, Dash, or other crowd-favorite privacy coins, rebalancing the sector’s performance.