Monad Token Plunges 40% as Arthur Hayes Predicts 99% Drop

In a recent YouTube interview with Altcoin Daily, Arthur Hayes didn’t mince words about Monad’s prospects. The former BitMEX CEO described the protocol’s coin as another ‘high FDV, low-float’ token, drawing direct comparisons to Berachain, which launched in February 2025 and has seen its native token BERA trade beneath $1—nearly 94% below its all-time high of $14.83. Hayes’ prediction of a 99% decline for MON represents one of the most pessimistic forecasts from a major industry figure following the project’s much-hyped launch.

Hayes elaborated on his skepticism by stating that any Layer 1 blockchain besides Ethereum and Solana is ‘zero’ and unlikely to perform well long-term. ‘Every coin gets their first pump and people want to believe in the new L1,’ Hayes noted during the interview. ‘Everybody wants to invest in the new Ethereum like they would have in 2014 when everyone missed it. Me included. But again, that doesn’t mean it [Monad] is going to actually have any real use case.’ This sentiment reflects what Hayes characterizes as classic FOMO (fear of missing out) behavior, particularly following Ethereum’s massive success story.

Hayes’ commentary extends beyond Monad to deliver a broader verdict on the Layer 1 blockchain landscape. His position that only Ethereum and Solana among Layer 1 protocols will achieve meaningful success represents a significant challenge to the numerous alternative Layer 1 projects that have emerged in recent years. This perspective comes from someone who built one of cryptocurrency’s most influential trading platforms and has witnessed multiple market cycles.

The timing of Hayes’ comments coincides with Monad’s dramatic price reversal. After hitting its all-time high of $0.048 on Wednesday, November 26, MON has declined over 40% to approximately $0.0285 at the time of writing. This pattern of initial euphoria followed by significant correction aligns with Hayes’ observation that new projects often experience early price spikes before facing deep corrections when fundamental use cases fail to materialize to support the initial growth.

Rather than betting on new Layer 1 protocols, Hayes identified what he calls the ‘magnificent five’ of cryptocurrency protocols: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, ZCash, and Ethena. This selection notably excludes Monad and other emerging Layer 1 competitors while including privacy-focused ZCash and synthetic dollar protocol Ethena. The inclusion of ZCash particularly signals Hayes’ belief in the growing importance of privacy technologies within the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Looking forward, Hayes emphasized that privacy-focused coins like ZCash and Monero will dominate the crypto narrative even more in the coming year. Additionally, he highlighted Zero Knowledge (ZK) proofs and quantum resistance as other critical crypto narratives to watch in 2026. ‘The next winner in the crypto market over the next one to two years would come from the ZK space,’ Hayes stated, pointing to technological innovations rather than new base layer protocols as the source of future value creation.

This forward-looking perspective suggests that while new Layer 1 launches like Monad may generate short-term excitement, the real technological advancements and investment opportunities lie in specific applications and privacy-enhancing technologies built atop established blockchain infrastructure. Hayes’ commentary serves as both a warning about the risks of chasing new Layer 1 projects and a roadmap for where he believes genuine innovation and value creation will occur in the coming crypto cycle.