Missing Data Clouds Fed Policy, Bitcoin Slides Amid Uncertainty

The White House confirmed that October’s key inflation and jobs data will likely never be released due to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, creating what White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt described as a permanently impaired Federal Statistical system. According to CNBC reports, Leavitt warned that this data blackout leaves Federal Reserve policymakers ‘flying blind at a critical period,’ fundamentally altering the information landscape that typically guides monetary policy decisions.

The shutdown, which ended after President Donald Trump signed legislation reopening the Federal government, stemmed from Democratic arguments for extending expiring tax credits that would lower healthcare costs for millions of Americans. Even with the government reopening, the permanent loss of October’s economic data has created lasting consequences for market participants and policymakers alike. Adam Chu, chief researcher at GreeksLive, told Decrypt that this situation ‘amplifies the importance and uncertainty surrounding the next release, as it grants the data agency greater maneuvering room.’

The data vacuum has immediately impacted cryptocurrency markets, with Bitcoin extending its weekly slide amid the rising uncertainty. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin dropped 1.1% over the past 24 hours to trade at $102,100, extending its 10% decline over the past week. The absence of reliable economic indicators has forced traders to reassess their positions in the volatile digital asset.

Prediction markets reflect this newfound caution, with users on Myriad—owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan—tempering their bullish expectations significantly. The probability of Bitcoin hitting $115,000 before falling to $85,000 dropped from 61.4% to 58.8% in just one day, indicating rapidly diminishing confidence in near-term price appreciation. This shift demonstrates how quickly market sentiment can change when traditional economic anchors disappear.

The missing data has particularly complicated the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory, with rate-cut expectations softening dramatically. December rate futures now price in only a 50% probability of a 25-basis-point cut, representing a significant decline from previous market consensus. This development poses a particular challenge for Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who has consistently emphasized a data-driven approach to monetary policy decisions.

Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey, explained to Decrypt that ‘in a data-vacuum environment, the primary impact on macro-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin is a sharp rise in uncertainty, which naturally increases volatility.’ Sun expects trading to become ‘sentiment-driven, making it difficult for the market to sustain strong upward momentum.’ This shift from data-dependent to sentiment-driven markets represents a fundamental change in how assets are being priced and traded.

The analyst further suggested that ‘the Fed is likely to shift into a risk-management posture,’ warning that ‘an overly hawkish stance could amplify vulnerabilities and raise the probability of a policy misstep.’ This creates a delicate balancing act for Powell and his colleagues, who must now navigate policy decisions without two critical pieces of economic data that typically inform their inflation and employment assessments.

The situation creates a macro overhang that extends beyond cryptocurrency markets, affecting all policy-sensitive assets. The combination of missing CPI data and unreleased jobs reports means traders are reassessing the entire policy outlook without key indicators that typically shape market expectations. This uncertainty has forced market participants to operate with incomplete information, increasing the potential for mispricing and volatility across asset classes.

The data gap raises the risk of Federal Reserve missteps at a time when markets are particularly sensitive to policy signals. With the central bank’s traditional guidance framework compromised, investors face the prospect of increased market swings until new economic data becomes available and patterns can be reestablished. The lasting impact of this episode may extend beyond immediate price movements, potentially altering how markets interpret and respond to economic information in the future.