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MicroStrategy’s market-implied Bitcoin premium has compressed sharply from 3.4x to 1.58x, weakening Michael Saylor’s acquisition flywheel. Analyst Miles Deutscher warns this signals fading demand and increased risk for the company’s leveraged BTC strategy. The shift coincides with controversial changes to the company’s equity issuance guidance.
- MicroStrategy's mNAV premium has compressed from 3.4x to 1.58x, significantly reducing the company's ability to fund Bitcoin purchases through cheap equity issuance
- Revised ATM guidance removes the 2.5x mNAV safeguard, raising concerns about potential shareholder dilution and increased financial risk during Bitcoin volatility
- The proliferation of spot Bitcoin ETFs undermines the rationale for paying a premium for MicroStrategy's leveraged exposure when investors can access BTC directly at NAV
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