Introduction
On-chain data reveals a pivotal shift in institutional Bitcoin behavior, with major investors transitioning from net sellers to net buyers for the first time since late 2025. This pattern, historically a precursor to significant price appreciation, is being highlighted by market analysts as Bitcoin breaks above $93,800. The return to accumulation by both broad institutional entities and dedicated corporate treasuries suggests a resurgence of confidence that could signal the next major market move.
Key Points
- Historical data shows Bitcoin price increased an average of 109% following previous institutional net-buying signals, with outcomes varying from +390% to -13%.
- Bitcoin treasury companies, including the world's largest corporate holder Strategy, have flipped to net buying in 2026 after being net sellers in late 2025.
- The shift in institutional behavior coincides with Bitcoin's price rebound to $93,800, breaking a phase of consolidation observed since December.
The Institutional Pivot: From Distribution to Accumulation
According to analysis shared by Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, institutional entities have flipped to net buying of Bitcoin after a period of sustained distribution. The shift began in late 2025, following a bearish turn in Bitcoin’s price after it topped above $126,000. Edwards’ chart illustrates that institutional selling pressure peaked in October 2025 before calming as the cryptocurrency entered a consolidation phase in December. The metric tracking this behavior has now grown into positive territory in early 2026, indicating a clear turn towards net accumulation.
The historical significance of this signal is substantial. Edwards’ analysis of past instances where these “humongous traders” turned net buyers shows that Bitcoin’s price rose by an average of 109% afterward. However, the outcomes exhibit high variance. The most bullish signal occurred in 2020, preceding a staggering 390% rally, while a signal in 2024 was followed by a 13% decline. The most recent occurrence, in the first half of 2025, preceded a 41% price surge. This historical context frames the current shift as a potentially powerful, though not guaranteed, bullish indicator for the market.
Treasury Companies: A Key Pillar of Demand Returns
Adding weight to the broader institutional trend is the renewed buying from Bitcoin treasury companies. These entities, which hold Bitcoin on their corporate balance sheets, represent a dedicated and influential segment of institutional demand. As Edwards highlighted in a separate analysis, these companies had also become net sellers in late 2025. A key metric—the 30-day rate of change in their Buy-Sell Ratio—plunged into negative territory in November 2025, reflecting more selling pressure than buying.
That trend has now decisively reversed. Edwards notes, “Bitcoin treasury companies just flipped to net buying again” in 2026. Notably, Strategy, the world’s largest corporate treasury holder of Bitcoin, continued its accumulation strategy even during the market’s bearish shift late last year. However, its buying alone was insufficient to offset the broader sector’s selling at the time. The collective return to net buying by these treasuries in 2026 provides a concrete, on-chain confirmation of renewed institutional conviction, reinforcing the signal from the wider institutional cohort.
Market Context and Future Implications
The shift in institutional behavior coincides with a noticeable price movement. After a period of stagnation, Bitcoin has climbed back to the $93,800 level, breaking from its consolidation range. This price action suggests the market is beginning to respond to the changing fundamental backdrop of demand. The combination of price recovery and on-chain accumulation data creates a more constructive technical and fundamental picture.
The critical question for investors now is whether history will repeat, rhyme, or deviate. While the average 109% gain following past signals is compelling, the high variance in outcomes—from +390% to -13%—serves as a crucial reminder that the signal is not a certainty. Market conditions, macroeconomic factors, and broader risk appetite will ultimately interact with this institutional demand. Nevertheless, the return of deep-pocketed, presumably strategic buyers after a distribution phase is a classic bullish development in any asset class. As both broad institutions and specialist treasury companies align in their accumulation stance, the foundation for Bitcoin’s next significant price move appears to be strengthening.
📎 Related coverage from: newsbtc.com
