HYPE Token Faces $500M Monthly Unlocks, Market Watches

The Hyperliquid ecosystem is about to face its most significant challenge yet as the long-awaited vesting schedule for HYPE tokens begins on November 29. Over the next 24 months, approximately $11.9 billion worth of HYPE tokens will be distributed to various stakeholders, creating what market analysts are calling a ‘wall of supply’ that could test even the most optimistic long-term holders. The sheer scale of this distribution sets HYPE apart from typical token unlock events, with monthly releases continuing uninterrupted for two full years.

According to the vesting schedule, Hyperliquid will face $500 million in monthly token unlocks throughout this period. The platform’s current buyback program absorbs only about 17% of that monthly supply, equivalent to roughly $90 million worth of tokens. This leaves an estimated $410 million in net new tokens hitting the market every month—a substantial overhang that could create sustained downward pressure unless offset by rising demand. The imbalance between incoming supply and existing absorption mechanisms presents a fundamental challenge for HYPE’s tokenomics.

Beyond the fundamental supply concerns, the technical picture for HYPE reflects a market at a crossroads. The token is currently trading below both the 7-day ($46.8) and 30-day ($49.54) simple moving averages, signaling short-term weakness in price action. However, it maintains a comfortable position above the 200-day SMA at $33.7, indicating that the long-term bullish structure remains intact despite near-term headwinds.

Additional technical indicators paint a mixed but cautious picture. The RSI-14 reading of 42.64 suggests neutral-to-weak conditions—neither oversold nor overbought—while the MACD histogram at -1.71 signals a bearish momentum bias. A modest 24-hour bounce has coincided with Fibonacci support levels, but this movement has so far lacked the volume and conviction needed to confirm a genuine bullish reversal. Taken together, the chart setup implies that short-term downside risks persist, particularly with the unlock-driven supply looming.

The success of HYPE’s tokenomics during this challenging period will ultimately depend on whether demand can outpace the constant wave of new supply. With $410 million in net new tokens entering the market monthly, the platform will need to demonstrate substantial utility growth, increased adoption, or enhanced token burning mechanisms to maintain price stability. Market participants are closely monitoring liquidity conditions, inflow patterns, and key resistance levels to anticipate potential outcomes.

The situation facing Hyperliquid highlights the importance of data-driven approaches in navigating complex market conditions. Just as traders analyze performance metrics and anticipate market shifts, successful market participants must combine rigorous analysis with strategic execution. The coming months will serve as a real-world test of whether HYPE’s ecosystem can generate sufficient organic demand to counterbalance the programmed supply increases, making this a defining moment for the token’s long-term trajectory.