Hassett as Fed Chair: Crypto’s Bullish Bet

According to Bloomberg-sourced reporting, Kevin Hassett, head of the White House National Economic Council, has suddenly become the market’s base case for the next Fed chair. Hassett has emerged as the frontrunner for President Donald Trump’s choice to lead the Federal Reserve, seen as the candidate most aligned with Trump’s preference for lower interest rates. What makes this development particularly significant for crypto investors are Hassett’s direct ties to the digital asset space – earlier disclosures showed he previously served as an adviser to Coinbase and holds at least $1 million in Coinbase stock.

This combination of macro dovishness and direct exposure to a major US exchange forms the core of the bullish case for crypto under a potential Hassett Fed. Bitwise senior investment strategist Juan Leon articulated this sentiment bluntly on X: ‘If Kevin Hassett becomes Fed Chair, the implications for crypto are strongly bullish.’ Leon characterized Hassett as an ‘aggressive dove’ who has publicly criticized current rates for being too high and advocated for deeper, faster cuts, while also noting his leadership of the White House digital asset working group to shape pro-crypto regulation.

The political logic behind Hassett’s rise has been clearly articulated by macro commentators. As EndGame Macro noted in a thread, ‘Hassett isn’t leading because he’s the most academic or the most central bankerish. He’s leading because he checks the boxes Trump actually cares about.’ Trump wants someone he already trusts, who has spent years defending Trump publicly, and who has been openly critical of the Fed for being too slow, too cautious, and too political. In this framework, markets hear dovish policy, Trump hears someone who can deliver growth, and crypto enthusiasts hear ‘one of us.’

This political alignment is now being reflected in market pricing. On prediction market platform Polymarket, contracts tracking the Fed chair race show Hassett around 53% at press time, reinforcing the shift from speculation to probabilistic base case. The market’s assessment suggests that crypto is moving closer to the center of US monetary power, with a potential Fed chair who brings both policy influence and industry experience.

However, the potential Hassett regime cannot be separated from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s emerging blueprint for the Fed. Bessent has been openly questioning the post-crisis operating framework, with Walter Bloomberg relaying from his CNBC appearance that ‘BESSENT ON FED: AMPLE RESERVES REGIME MIGHT BE FRAYING.’ Forward Guidance host Felix Jauvin summarized the direction of travel: ‘Bessent wants a fed chair that gets us out of balance sheet shenanigans and simplifying things to how they were pre-ample regime. Dovish FFR, hawkish balance sheet.’

This framing matters significantly for crypto markets. A Hassett Fed that cuts the policy rate faster in downturns is one thing; a return to full-blown quantitative easing is another. The ‘dovish FFR, hawkish balance sheet’ mix would still create a friendlier macro environment than the post-2022 tightening cycle, but it is not a guaranteed repeat of the 2020-2021 liquidity wave that lifted every risk asset simultaneously. As Jauvin emphasized, ‘I don’t know if I can emphasize enough just how far away we are from any sort of QE copium.’

The critical question for crypto allocators is whether a potential Hassett appointment translates into genuine market momentum. Rate cuts without large-scale asset purchases support risk appetite and lower discount rates, yet they do not automatically recreate the extreme ‘everything rally’ conditions that many in crypto implicitly associate with Fed dovishness. The scale of any move will be determined by how a Hassett-led Fed balances ‘dovish rates’ with ‘hawkish balance sheet’ in practice.

Ultimately, whether Hassett’s potential appointment leads to a crypto explosion will depend less on personalities than on the interaction of three forces: how aggressively a Hassett Fed actually cuts rates, how far Bessent is willing to go in shrinking or simplifying the balance sheet, and how markets reassess inflation, term premia and fiscal risk under a more overtly political central bank. At press time, with the total crypto market cap standing at $2.96 trillion, markets are signaling that crypto’s relationship with US monetary policy may be entering a new era – one where digital assets move closer to the center of power.