Gold vs Bitcoin: Analysts Debate Cycle Bottom as BTC Tests $82K

Market analyst Doctor Profit has drawn attention to what he describes as one of the most important charts of the current Bitcoin cycle: the Gold-to-Bitcoin ratio. According to his framework, this chart has repeatedly provided reliable signals for major market extremes. He notes a historical pattern where Bitcoin tends to peak when 0.02 BTC equals one ounce of gold and finds a cycle bottom when that ratio reaches 0.11 BTC per ounce. This relationship accurately marked Bitcoin’s top in 2021 and its subsequent bottom in 2022 during the previous market cycle.

Doctor Profit argues the same pattern has repeated in the current cycle, with Bitcoin’s recent top near $125,000 coinciding with the ratio once again touching the 0.02 level. The critical question now is whether the market will descend to the 0.11 BTC-per-ounce level that has historically signaled a bottom. Based on a current gold price of roughly $5,500 per ounce, dividing that figure by 0.11 implies a Bitcoin price target near $50,000. This aligns with Doctor Profit’s broader expectation that Bitcoin’s cycle low could fall between $50,000 and $60,000.

He further notes that even under a more bullish scenario for gold, where the metal rises to $7,000 per ounce, the same 0.11 ratio would imply a Bitcoin bottom near $63,000. In both calculations, the analysis reinforces Doctor Profit’s thesis that gold is likely to continue outperforming Bitcoin in the coming months, with the cryptocurrency facing significant downside pressure before a sustainable recovery can begin.

Not all analysts share this bearish outlook. Technical analyst Michael van de Poppe offers a contrasting perspective, suggesting that gold’s recent strength could be nearing exhaustion, potentially setting the stage for capital to rotate back into Bitcoin. Van de Poppe highlights the relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin measured against gold on the weekly timeframe, noting it has reached the lowest level ever recorded. In his assessment, this suggests a sharp and unsustainable imbalance in valuations, with one asset appearing overextended in the short term and the other deeply undervalued.

Van de Poppe describes this situation as part of what he calls the ‘big rotation’ phase of the market cycle. He also points to Bitcoin’s Z-Score indicator, a metric used to assess whether the cryptocurrency is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its market capitalization to its realized capitalization, adjusted for volatility. According to his analysis, the current Z-Score for Bitcoin is lower than it was at several major historical bottoms, including those seen in 2015, 2018, the COVID-19 crash in 2020, and the 2022 bear market low.

This data, in van de Poppe’s view, signals that BTC is already deep into a bear-market phase and may be approaching its final stages. Rather than predicting a further catastrophic drop to $50,000, this perspective interprets the extreme readings as evidence that Bitcoin is severely undervalued relative to its own history and to gold, potentially laying the groundwork for a significant reversal.

The analytical debate unfolds as Bitcoin itself tests key technical levels. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $83,435, having recorded losses of 2.2% and 7% over the past 24 hours and seven days, respectively. The cryptocurrency is now approaching the closely watched $82,000 mark, widely seen as a pivotal point for determining its next major directional move.

The divergence between the two analyst views encapsulates the current market uncertainty. Doctor Profit’s ratio analysis, grounded in a specific historical pattern, projects a clear path toward a deeper correction where gold maintains its dominance. Conversely, Michael van de Poppe’s focus on momentum and valuation extremes suggests the pain may be largely over, with Bitcoin’s weakness representing a late-cycle bear phase that precedes a major rotation of capital. The resolution of this debate will likely hinge on whether Bitcoin can hold critical support or if the historical weight of the Gold-to-Bitcoin ratio proves decisive once more.