Gold Hits Record High, Bitcoin Lags: 2025 Divergence Analysis

The precious metals market witnessed an extraordinary year in 2025, with gold leading the charge to a record $4,491 per ounce. According to analyst Bret Kenwell of eToro, the metals trade has been exceptionally strong, with gold digesting its rally to new highs remarkably well. The 71% year-to-date gain is particularly notable for an asset known for its stability, underscoring the intensity of the safe-haven demand. Silver’s performance was even more explosive, posting a 132% gain and also reaching all-time highs.

Analysts cited by CBS News pointed to rising geopolitical tensions and expectations of softer monetary policy as the primary catalysts. This environment propelled gold’s market capitalization to increase by an estimated $12 trillion in 2025 alone. To put this monumental figure into perspective, it is roughly seven times the entire market capitalization of Bitcoin, which stood at $1.75 trillion and had shrunk by approximately $100 billion since the start of the year. This divergence firmly positioned gold, alongside silver, as the standout performing assets of the year.

While gold soared, Bitcoin struggled, declining 5.7% year-to-date. As highlighted in a social media post by Rekt Fencer, this performance made Bitcoin one of the worst-performing major assets in 2025. The digital asset failed to sustain a break above the $90,000 level, retreating to around $87,500 during Asian trading. Analyst Sykodelic noted that Bitcoin has only managed to push about 70% above its previous cycle’s peak, a gain they described as modest, failing to even double that previous high.

This tepid performance occurred despite what some analysts see as solid fundamentals. The cooling investor sentiment toward crypto assets created a stark contrast with the fervor for precious metals. The $12 trillion expansion in gold’s market value this year dramatically overshadows Bitcoin’s entire ecosystem, emphasizing the scale of capital flowing into traditional havens versus digital alternatives during this period of uncertainty.

Despite the current divergence, some analysts point to historical precedents that suggest a potential catch-up phase for Bitcoin. Analyst ‘Bull Theory’ observed that Bitcoin has historically lagged gold prices before eventually converging, citing the 2017 and 2021 market cycles. They argue a similar scenario is unfolding, supported by improving liquidity, anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, US Treasury activity, and a global money supply at record highs.

“The price action is matching the same pattern: Gold is already trending strongly. Bitcoin is still lagging,” Bull Theory stated. They further suggested that gold is currently in an overbought condition, which could lead to weakness in the coming weeks and a potential rotation of capital from gold into Bitcoin. This perspective introduces a narrative of patience for crypto investors, framing the current lag as part of a predictable sequence.

However, the near-term path remains contested. Sykodelic expressed bewilderment at prevailing bearish expectations for a prolonged downturn in 2026, hinting at potential surprise upside. The core question for investors is whether the macroeconomic drivers that fueled gold—such as Fed policy and liquidity—will ultimately catalyze a broad-based asset rally that includes Bitcoin, or if the divergence marks a more permanent shift in risk appetites. As 2025 concludes with gold at a record high and Bitcoin searching for momentum, the stage is set for a critical year of observation and potential rotation.