Gemini Files for CFTC-Regulated Prediction Market Amid Losses

Gemini Space Station Inc. has taken concrete steps toward entering the prediction market business by filing thirteen public documents with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission in May. The filings seek approval to register “Gemini Titan” as a designated contract market, which would allow the Winklevoss-owned company to operate a federally regulated derivatives exchange for event contracts. This regulatory designation requires compliance with 23 core principles covering market surveillance, financial integrity, and system safeguards to ensure fair and orderly markets.

The company’s push into prediction markets isn’t entirely new. In August 2024, Gemini submitted a comment letter to the CFTC challenging the agency’s proposed rule on event contracts, arguing that the regulation exceeded statutory authority and warning that blanket prohibitions of “event contracts involving gaming” would hamper prediction market development. According to Bloomberg reports, Gemini aims to offer these services directly rather than through third-party partnerships, positioning itself to compete with Kalshi, the only other active CFTC-regulated event market, and Polymarket, which is poised to reopen in the United States.

Gemini’s strategic expansion comes amid significant financial headwinds. The company reported a staggering $282 million net loss in the first six months of 2025, nearly double its $158 million deficit for all of 2024. Revenue declined to $68.6 million in H1 2025 from $74.3 million in the year-earlier period, according to an August SEC filing. These financial struggles have been reflected in the company’s stock performance, with shares falling roughly 49% since its mid-September IPO, closing at $16.29 on Tuesday compared to its first-day opening price of $32 after pricing at $28 per share.

The company’s challenges extend beyond pure financial metrics. More than 80% of Gemini’s trading volume now comes from institutional clients rather than retail users, limiting potential growth in a market where competitors like Coinbase and Robinhood maintain stronger retail presences. Ryan Yoon, senior analyst at Tiger Research, told Decrypt that while the company has “proved their model enough to IPO,” it still needs “a breakout business” of its own to drive sustainable growth.

Gemini’s timing coincides with unprecedented growth in prediction market activity. Weekly trading volume hit an all-time high of $2 billion in the final week of October, creating a significant opportunity for new entrants. The company’s proposed “Gemini Titan” platform would enter a competitive landscape dominated by Kalshi as the only other active CFTC-regulated event market, with Polymarket preparing to reestablish its U.S. presence.

The success of this venture hinges on regulatory approval and market adoption. Operating through a Designated Contract Market regulated by the CFTC under the Commodity Exchange Act would provide Gemini with the necessary framework to list event contracts in the U.S., but would also subject the company to rigorous compliance requirements. This regulatory pathway represents both an opportunity for legitimacy and a potential constraint on the types of contracts Gemini could offer, particularly given the company’s previous objections to CFTC restrictions on gaming-related event contracts.