Gemini Exits EU, UK, Australia; Cuts 25% of Staff

The decision marks a significant rollback for the exchange founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, which had expanded to over 60 countries since its 2015 launch in America. In a public statement, the founders candidly explained the rationale: “These foreign markets have proven hard to win in for various reasons and we find ourselves stretched thin with a level of organizational and operational complexity that drives our cost structure up and slows us down.” They concluded bluntly, “And we don’t have the demand in these regions to justify them.”

The operational wind-down will occur over the next two months. Starting March 5, accounts in the affected regions will enter a “withdrawal only” mode, with all accounts scheduled for closure on April 6. To facilitate the transition, Gemini has established a partnership with eToro, allowing users to transfer their balances directly. This orderly exit is designed to minimize disruption for customers while allowing the firm to swiftly reduce its international operational footprint and associated expenses.

The market exits are coupled with a severe 25% reduction in headcount, a move Gemini frames as essential to streamline operations and improve its path to profitability. The firm indicated it will leverage artificial intelligence (AI) to drive efficiency gains with this leaner team. With resources consolidated, Gemini’s strategic focus will shift decisively toward two areas: the American cryptocurrency market and, more prominently, the burgeoning sector of prediction markets.

Gemini’s bet on prediction markets is not speculative; it is backed by regulatory progress and early traction. The firm secured a critical license from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in December to operate a prediction market platform domestically. In the short time since, the platform has reportedly attracted over 10,000 users and generated $24 million in trading volume, which the founders say has “dramatically transformed” their marketplace. “Our thesis is that prediction markets will be as big or bigger than today’s capital markets,” the Winklevoss brothers wrote, highlighting their belief in the sector’s potential to “leverage the wisdom of the crowds.”

This pivot aligns with significant investor interest in the space. Market leaders like Kalshi and Polymarket have raised billions and earned valuations of at least $11 billion and $9 billion, respectively, underscoring the competitive but high-potential arena Gemini is now prioritizing. (It is worth noting that Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan, also operates a prediction market platform called Myriad.)

The market’s immediate reaction to the announcement was sharply negative. Gemini’s shares (GEMI) fell more than 7.5% on Thursday, recently trading at $6.77. This decline deepens a painful trend for the company’s stock since its initial public offering (IPO) in September, when shares debuted at $28. The current trading price represents a staggering decline of approximately 313% from that IPO level, reflecting profound investor skepticism about the firm’s trajectory and valuation.

This strategic consolidation follows another recent retrenchment: last week’s closure of Nifty Gateway, the NFT platform Gemini acquired in 2019 that was integral to the digital art craze of 2021-22. Together, the closure of Nifty Gateway and the exit from three major international markets signal a comprehensive retreat from peripheral ventures and challenging geographies. The firm is now staking its future on a streamlined operation betting heavily on the success of its U.S.-based prediction market platform and its core crypto exchange business in America, hoping this focused approach can reverse its financial fortunes and restore investor confidence.