Introduction
Ethereum is facing a confluence of bearish pressures as significant on-chain selling by large holders coincides with substantial outflows from spot ETFs and a breakdown below critical technical levels. Data from analyst Ali Martinez reveals whales have redistributed over 1.63 million ETH since the start of January, while the cryptocurrency’s price struggles to reclaim the $3,000 support zone, setting the stage for potential further declines.
Key Points
- Whale holdings dropped by approximately 1.63 million ETH in January, signaling large-scale redistribution.
- Spot Ethereum ETF net inflows hit lowest levels since August after $600+ million in recent outflows.
- Technical analysis identifies $3,085 as crucial resistance and warns of potential 20% decline if 200-day MA rejection repeats.
Whale Exodus and ETF Volatility Signal Institutional Caution
On-chain data, cited by popular analyst Ali Martinez from Santiment, paints a concerning picture for Ethereum’s largest holders. Whale holdings, which had increased slightly to around 31 million ETH at the start of the new year, have since plummeted to just over 29 million tokens as of January 23. This represents a redistribution of approximately 1.63 million Ethereum, valued at billions of dollars at current prices, indicating a significant shift in sentiment among the network’s most influential participants.
Parallel to this whale activity, the market for spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has exhibited extreme volatility, undermining a potential source of institutional demand. According to data from SoSoValue, these funds attracted over $400 million by January 6, only to lose a similar amount by January 9. After a brief recovery streak adding nearly $500 million, the previous week saw a massive withdrawal exceeding $600 million. This has driven the total cumulative net inflows down to $12.30 billion, their lowest level since mid-August, as reported by CryptoPotato.
Technical Breakdown: ETH Struggles Below Crucial Levels
The price action of Ethereum’s native token, ETH, mirrors this fundamental weakness. Despite setting a new all-time high in mid-2025, the asset ended the year negatively. A strong start to 2026 pushed its price above $3,400 within two weeks, but it has since followed the broader market downturn, slumping below the crucial $3,000 support level where it currently trades.
Further analysis from Ali Martinez suggests that for ETH to stage any meaningful bullish recovery, it must first reclaim the $3,085 level. As of the latest data, the asset remains significantly below this threshold, failing to establish a foundation for upward momentum. This technical failure compounds the selling pressure indicated by the on-chain and ETF flow data.
The 200-Day MA: A Historical Barrier to Breakouts
Adding to the technical headwinds is a formidable historical resistance level. Analyst Merlijn The Trader has highlighted the critical role of the 200-day moving average (MA), currently situated around $3,300. His analysis shows a consistent pattern where rejections at this key moving average have triggered sharp double-digit price corrections.
According to Merlijn The Trader’s chart, shared on social media platform X, previous rejections led to price dumps of 27%, 21%, and 14% respectively. With ETH currently rejecting the 200-day MA once again, the analyst warns that history could rhyme, potentially setting the stage for another correction of approximately 20%. This technical perspective underscores the significant challenge Ethereum faces in reversing its current downtrend, as it contends with both immediate support breaks and a major long-term resistance level.
📎 Related coverage from: cryptopotato.com
