Ethereum Tests $4,100 Support as Q4 Rally Pattern Emerges

Ethereum’s price action has been marked by volatility, with ETH trading near $4,200 after a decline from highs close to $4,950. This correction of nearly 20% has brought the asset’s price into proximity with its 20-week moving average, a key technical level often watched by traders. As noted by market analyst Michaël van de Poppe, this has resulted in a period of price compression, suggesting the market may be coiling for its next significant move. Van de Poppe highlighted the zone between $3,550 and $3,750 as a critical area of potential support, aligning with the rising 20-week MA and a former breakout level.

The ability of ETH to hold above the $4,100 level is being viewed as a near-term test of strength. Below this, the wider support band down to $3,550 represents a crucial defensive line for bulls. Chart analysis also points to a historical consolidation area around $2,800, which could serve as a deeper support zone if a more severe downturn occurs. The recent lower trading volume accompanying this price action supports the thesis that the market is in a consolidation phase, potentially building energy for a decisive directional break.

Beyond simple support levels, technical analysts are identifying specific chart patterns that hint at a substantial bullish outcome. Analyst Trader Tardigrade has pointed to a clear falling wedge formation on Ethereum’s chart. This pattern, characterized by two converging downward-sloping trendlines, is typically considered a reversal pattern. With the price action nearing the wedge’s apex, a breakout above the upper trendline could signal the start of a new upward leg, with a potential price target projected near $6,800.

Adding another layer of technical optimism, analyst Merlijn The Trader applies the Wyckoff method to Ethereum’s price movement. This model analyzes the market cycles of accumulation and distribution. According to his analysis, ETH may have completed key phases including the ‘Spring’ (a final shakeout of weak hands) and the ‘Sign of Strength.’ The current price action is identified as the ‘Last Point of Support,’ a stage within the Wyckoff accumulation schematic that often precedes a powerful upward acceleration. Merlijn The Trader’s interpretation suggests this could be the launchpad for a move that ultimately propels Ethereum’s price significantly higher.

Seasonality provides a compelling backdrop to the current technical picture. Historical data reveals that Ethereum has a pronounced tendency for strong performance in the fourth quarter during bull market cycles. In the famed 2017 bull run, ETH surged over 140% in Q4. Similarly, in 2020, the asset posted gains exceeding 100% in the final quarter of the year. This pattern has not gone unnoticed by market participants like Crypto Rand, who have drawn parallels to the current setup.

While past performance is never a guarantee of future results, the combination of a robust technical foundation and a favorable seasonal trend creates a potent narrative for Ethereum bulls. The asset’s performance in 2025—a difficult Q1 followed by strong recoveries in Q2 and Q3—further mirrors the volatile but ultimately upward trajectory seen in previous cycles. As the market watches ETH test key supports, the question is whether the confluence of a falling wedge, a Wyckoff accumulation phase, and historical seasonal strength will converge to produce a repeat of Ethereum’s characteristic late-year rallies.