Ethereum Tests $3,000 Support Amid Institutional Pullback

As Ethereum’s price hovers just above $4,000, having shed 10% of its value in the past month, market experts are pointing to the $3,000 mark as a pivotal structural support. This level is not arbitrary; it represents the aggregate break-even point, or ‘realized price,’ for accumulating Ethereum addresses. According to data from CryptoQuant, this metric surged dramatically from $1,700 to $2,900 between June and September. This surge coincided with two major catalysts: the May announcement of BitMine’s strategic pivot to an Ethereum treasury and a significant uptick in inflows for U.S. spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The confluence of corporate and institutional buying has effectively built a floor under the market. Shivam Thakral, CEO of BuyUcoin, told Decrypt that “$3,000 is now a structural support,” a sentiment echoed by Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, who described it as a “strong psychological support level” driven by institutional flow. Data from SoSoValue underscores this dynamic, showing that spot Ethereum ETF net assets ballooned from $9.37 billion to $27.42 billion during the same period, creating a formidable flow-driven support level.

Corporate strategy has played a starring role in shaping Ethereum’s recent price landscape. Since its pivot in May, BitMine has aggressively accumulated Ethereum, amassing a treasury reserve of 2.14 million ETH worth approximately $10 billion. Its latest purchase of 264,378 ETH on September 22 demonstrated a continued commitment even as broader sentiment waned. However, BitMine’s bold moves stand in stark contrast to the wider market. According to Decrypt, BitMine was the only treasury company to accumulate ETH this week, highlighting a significant lack of appetite elsewhere.

The cooling demand is directly linked to macroeconomic headwinds. Renewed U.S. dollar strength and broader uncertainty have slowed institutional participation. This is vividly illustrated by the performance of U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs, which have recorded three consecutive days of negative net flows. The decline is a sharp reversal from the peak daily net flow of $1.02 billion recorded on August 11. Furthermore, the market-to-Net Asset Value (mNAV) for Ethereum treasury companies is at or near 1, making it difficult for firms to raise cash for further purchases, effectively sidelining potential buyers.

Despite the established support at $3,000, bearish sentiment persists among market participants. Data from Myriad, a prediction market platform, reveals a divided outlook. Users place a 58% probability on Ethereum’s price hitting $3,500 before it reaches $5,000, indicating a belief that further downside is more likely than a swift recovery in the near term. Similarly, users assign only a 57% chance that BitMine’s treasury holdings will remain below 3 million ETH through October 27, suggesting expectations for its accumulation pace to slow.

The current crypto market slump, driven in part by Bitcoin’s steady downtrend since mid-August, continues to weigh heavily on Ethereum’s outlook. The focus has shifted to the cost basis of Ethereum holders, with the market anxiously watching to see if the $3,000 support can be sustained should the correction deepen. Nevertheless, some experts maintain a long-term bullish perspective. Bitget’s Gracy Chen remains optimistic, suggesting that another interest rate cut could soften the U.S. dollar’s recovery and reignite the broader crypto bull run. For now, the market remains in a holding pattern, testing the resilience of the institutional flows that have defined Ethereum’s price action in recent months.