Ethereum Price Analysis: Key Support Tested Amid Bearish Structure

On the daily timeframe, Ethereum’s price action remains firmly within a broader corrective phase. The asset continues to respect a well-defined descending channel, consistently forming lower highs beneath both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. This technical structure confirms the higher-timeframe trend still favors sellers. The recent breakdown accelerated ETH’s decline into the $1,750–$1,800 demand zone, where buyers have stepped in to slow the descent, providing temporary stabilization.

However, this stabilization near support does not constitute a trend reversal. The $2,300–$2,400 region now acts as a critical resistance cluster, aligning with prior breakdown levels and sitting just below the declining 100-day moving average. For the bearish structure to be invalidated, ETH must reclaim this zone with strong momentum and break decisively above the channel’s upper boundary. Until that occurs, any price rallies are likely to be corrective in nature, with the persistent risk of another leg down toward lower channel support.

Zooming into the 4-hour ETH/USDT chart reveals a different dynamic: a symmetrical triangle formation. This pattern has developed from recent lower highs and higher lows, compressing price action above the crucial $1,800 horizontal support zone. While this contraction suggests a pause in the downtrend, it reflects market indecision rather than a confirmed reversal, as the asset continues to print lower highs within the pattern.

The symmetrical triangle presents two clear potential outcomes. A breakout above the $2,000–$2,100 highs would serve as the first technical signal of a short-term momentum shift. Such a move could open a path toward testing the formidable $2,300-$2,400 resistance band identified on the daily chart. Conversely, a breakdown below the $1,800 support base would invalidate the consolidation thesis entirely. Losing this level would likely trigger renewed and potentially accelerated downside pressure, targeting deeper support levels not yet tested in this corrective phase.

On-chain analysis adds a layer of complexity to the purely technical picture. Data shows a sharp spike in Ethereum network activity recently, with the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA) of active addresses surging to multi-month highs. Historically, similar expansions in user engagement have coincided with periods of heightened volatility and often preceded major directional moves in the ETH price.

This creates a notable divergence: despite the significant spike in network participation, the asset’s price has not yet confirmed a bullish reversal. This suggests that while user engagement is rising—potentially indicating accumulation or panic selling—capital flows are not decisively pushing prices higher. The elevated activity could be forming a constructive base if it sustains while the price stabilizes. However, for this on-chain signal to translate into a bullish price outcome, it must be accompanied by a clear technical confirmation: a decisive break above the key resistance levels outlined in the daily and 4-hour chart analysis.

The current Ethereum setup presents a classic tension between near-term support and a dominant bearish trend. The stabilization near $1,800 offers a potential value zone, but within the context of the descending channel, it risks becoming a value trap if the broader structure holds. The symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart encapsulates this uncertainty, representing a coiled spring awaiting a directional catalyst.

Traders and investors are now faced with a binary watch. The bullish scenario requires ETH to first conquer the $2,000-$2,100 hurdle on the 4-hour chart, then muster the strength to challenge the $2,300-$2,400 fortress on the daily chart. The bearish scenario is simpler: a failure to hold $1,800 support. This would signal that the recent stabilization was merely a pause in the downtrend, likely triggering a sell-off toward lower supports. The spike in on-chain activity serves as a warning that volatility is brewing, but the direction of the ensuing move will be dictated by which of these technical levels breaks first.